Tuesday, October 16, 2012

What We'll Be Watching For Tonight

While spending the weekend with family and friends we were asked what specifically we’d be looking for in tonight’s presidential debate.
So here goes…
Given the backdrop of a struggling economy and high unemployment, this race will eventually come down to a referendum on the president’s record…with independent and swing voters holding the keys to victory.   Many of those independent and swing voters would have already used the current economic conditions as reason enough to give someone else a chance.  But they needed a plausible alternative.  Mitt Romney gave them that plausible alternative with his performance in the first debate.  Up until the Denver  debate the Romney campaign’s inept performance had left independents cold.  But the polls show that Romney changed their perception with one 90 minute performance.  The race is tightening and Romney has momentum on his side.  Can Romney keep the momentum going? 
We will be watching to see which Romney shows up tonight.  Will the aggressive confident, presidential Romney appear once again?  Or will the stiff, gaff prone, disconnected rich guy show up once more.  Will Romney, who has trouble connecting with people, be able to connect with a live audience of independent voters…some of whom may very well be members of his 47% club?  Will the audience ask him about his sudden shift from severe conservative to reasonable moderate?  And how will he explain he ideological change of course?
Pundits say that the president’s task tonight is much easier.  They say that his previous performance was so bad that all he has to do is look interested to pull off a win.
We disagree.  We think that if the president wants to win re-election he needs a very strong performance tonight. 
Stylistically, we’ll be watching to see if the president acts like he really wants the job…something he failed to do in the first debate. We’ll be watching to see if he passionately defends his record and if he calls out Romney’s factually challenged narrative…something he also failed to do in the first debate.  We’ll be watching to see if he reminds voters of where the country was four years ago and if he explains in detail how far he has taken the country down the road to recovery.  We’ll be watching to see if he defends the core issues that his base has so passionately fought for over the past four years.  Women’s rights, equal pay, contraception, abortion, gay marriage, gays in the military and immigration were barely mentioned in Denver.  Will the president bring them up if the audience does not?
But most importantly, we’ll be watching to see if the president lays out his specific plans for the country’s future.  The Obama campaign has been relentless and effective in defining Mitt Romney.  But they have failed to effectively lay out their vision for the future.  The president has said that his biggest failure was focusing on getting the policy right and not doing a very good job in telling the story.  He is absolutely correct in that assessment.  Tonight he needs to tell that story if expects to win a second term.
There will be 80 independent voters in tonight’s audience.  Millions more will be watching on television.  Each of them will be trying to determine for themselves whether the president deserves a second term or if they should they give someone else a shot. 
Mitt Romney has given independent voters a plausible alternative.  The president sat back and allowed Romney to assume that role and take over the campaign’s momentum.  The question tonight is will Romney continue that momentum or will the president be able to stem the tide and seize the momentum for himself.
We’ll be watching.               

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