Hurricane Sandy Impacts Election

Hurricane Sandy is expected to make landfall today.  The massive storm packing 80 mile per hour winds, a foot of rain and lethal storm surge will impact some 50 million people in the most heavily populated corridor in the nation.  Residents in New York City, Long Island, New Jersey and other coastal lowlands have been ordered to evacuate. The New York City transit system has been closed and thousands of flights in and out of the east coast cancelled.  Even the New York Stock Exchange, which has stubbornly refused to bow to the forces of nature in the past, has closed.  Millions are expected to be without power for weeks.

What makes this storm so unique is that its east west trajectory takes it right into the path of a winter storm moving in from the west and cold air moving in from the arctic.  The resulting collision could result in blizzard conditions producing up to two feet of snow as far east as Kentucky, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

While our thoughts and prayers are with the communities that stand in the storm’s path, we are in the business of politics.  And so the political question is: what impacts, if any will Hurricane Sandy have on this race?

The president has a job to do.  He has to run a government.  That could work in his favor.  Not to be cynical, but the storm will present the president with an opportunity. The president will have the advantage of appearing presidential as he visits FEMA control offices throughout the impacted areas; consoling those who have suffered the most and promising that federal and state assistance is on the way.  He will have the opportunity to work hand in hand with state governors to assure that assistance is delivered quickly and efficiently.

Hurricane Sandy could prove to be the president’s undoing as well.  He can’t be out on the stump when a natural disaster is about to hit the country.  He has already been forced to cancel several campaign events including a key event with President Clinton in Florida.  We expect that Bubba will do just fine without him. But it is an opportunity lost.  The storm and its resulting power outages could impact early voting.  Voter turnout is considered key to an Obama victory and anything that keeps people away from the polls does not bode well for the president.

Finally, if the government seems to be failing in its recovery efforts…slow to respond to the needs of the people or ineffective in getting resources where they are needed the most…the negative political impact will come crashing down on the president’s shoulders.  George H.W. Bush paid a huge political price for his failure to respond effectively to Hurricane Andrew.  And FEMA’s inept response to Hurricane Katrina was viewed by the Bush 43 administration as the low point in their tenure.

If you are sitting in the Romney Campaign offices in Boston you are probably throwing your Starbucks against the wall.  The Romney Campaign has momentum. When you have momentum you don’t want anything to get in the way…especially eight days before the election.   Hurricane Sandy has effectively stopped that momentum.  The airwaves are already shifting from Romney’s surge in the polls to wall to wall coverage of the storm.  Romney’s massive ad buys are not running as planned.  Like the president, the Romney machine has been forced to cancel events in key swing states.

Romney has been temporarily moved to the place of irrelevant spectator.  He can’t take to the stump to attack the president without looking crass, self serving and out of touch.  In fact, if he is anything but supportive of the president in this difficult time it will come back to haunt him. 

Romney had a great weekend.  Ohio polls show him tied with the president.  Another poll has him leading by six points in Florida.  The Des Moines Register has endorsed him; the first time that paper has endorsed a Republican since Nixon.  But all that momentum remains on hold as the nation turns its focus to Sandy.

How Sandy impacts this election is anybody’s guess.  What we do know is that the election is frozen in place for the time being.  It is doubtful that key the swing states of New Hampshire and Virginia will see either candidate again as floods and power outages are not conducive to campaign caravans.  The president will have a messaging advantage as he goes about administering the duties of his job.  And if the election comes down to the mechanics of ramping up voter turnout, the Obama ground game will have the advantage.

People say that there are 8 days of campaigning left before the election.  The fact is there are only about 5.  Historically most people will have made up their minds by the Thursday or Friday before the election.  

If that is the case then Sandy's impact is already being felt.