Mitt Romney is feeling pretty good about his prospects for the Republican nomination. Having won 200+ delegates on Super Tuesday he feels like it’s time for the other candidates to concede his victory and get out of the race. He thinks all of this talk about a brokered convention is nonsense.
“We think that we will get it done before the convention, but one thing I can tell you for sure is there’s not going to be some brokered convention where some new person comes in and becomes the nominee.”
Strong words from a confident candidate.
And then the Romney campaign handed its opponents the blueprint for denying Romney the nomination and extending the campaign all the way to the convention.
Calling on his opponents to step aside; the Romney campaign circulated a memo making the point that Romney’s Super Tuesday performance, where he won six states on a single night, increased his delegate lead to where it was virtually impossible for his rivals to catch him. The memo also suggested that his opponents were hurting the Party by continuing to try.
“As Governor Romney’s opponents attempt to ignore the basic principles of math, the only person’s odds of winning they are increasing are President Obama’s”
The Romney campaign is absolutely correct…it’s all about the math.
Romney needs to win 47% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination; his opponents 63%. In a one on one battle it is doubtful that Santorum, Gingrich or Paul could win enough delegates to secure the nomination before the convention. But it is certainly within the realm of possibility that the three of them collectively could win enough delegates to stop Romney from winning the prize before Tampa.
A look at the remaining contests only serves to prove the point. Romney is expected to lose in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kansas and Missouri. Only four of the remaining contests are winner take all. The remaining states award delegates proportionately, opening the door for Romney’s opponents to secure enough delegates to stall a Romney victory.
And then there is the possibility of an outlier candidate jumping in just to make certain that the contest stretches all the way to Tampa.
If Romney cannot secure the nomination before the convention...all bets are off.
The Republican Party does not want Mitt Romney to be their candidate. As one pundit said: “The body is rejecting the organ.” And the Romney campaign has unwittingly handed his opponents the mathematical path to bring about his defeat.