There is an axiom in Republican politics that says: “A Republican candidate cannot win the White House without winning 40% of the Hispanic vote.” This is a principle with roots dating back to the 2004 campaign when George W. Bush won the White House with 40% of the Hispanic vote.
Latino Decisions for the America’s Voice is a polling organization that analyzes Latino voting trends. According to their findings; in 2004 the Hispanic community constituted roughly 7% of the voters. In 2008 that number rose to 8%. In 2012 that number increased to 9% and in 2016 it is expected that Hispanics will make up almost 11% of the voters. Latino Decisions estimates that in 2016 a Republican
candidate will need 47% of the Hispanic vote to have any chance of winning the White House. The increase a direct result of the surge of voting age Hispanics living in the country.
Not convinced? Consider this…
Michael Murphy and Steve Schmidt are two of the most reasonable, thoughtful Republicans that I know. They have long and successful careers as Republican strategists on the national stage and are highly regarded in conservative circles. Both of these distinguished gentlemen have been preaching to their fellow conservatives that the 40% rule is still valid today. In fact, given the change in demographics they believe that the number is more like 42%-47%.
FYI…the losing Romney campaign won only 20% of the Hispanic vote.
So…given the critical importance of the Hispanic vote in 2016…what steps has the Republican Party taken in the first 100 days of campaigning to win over the Hispanic community?
On June 16, 2015 Donald Trump officially declared that he was running for president. In his announcement speech Trump said this about the Hispanics flooding over our southern border: “They’re bringing crime. They’re bringing drugs. They’re rapists…” Trump also announced that if elected he would use law enforcement to round up all of the 12 million illegal immigrants in this country and send them back over the border. Trump would also deport the children of illegal immigrants including those children born in the United States. Trump was rewarded for his immigration views by likely primary voters who voted him frontrunner status in all national polls taken during the first 100 days of the campaign.
As of this writing all 14 candidates for the GOP nomination support the deportation of all illegal immigrants currently living in this country. All 14 candidates oppose any path to citizenship for illegals.
All 14 candidates have spoken out against President Obama’s use of executive orders to grant temporary amnesty to illegal immigrants living in this country.
The Republican led House and Senate favor the deportation of all illegal immigrants and oppose any path to citizenship.
Outraged over CNBC’s treatment of the GOP candidates during the most recent presidential debate; Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus announced that the RNC was suspending the debate currently scheduled to air on Telemundo; another NBC affiliated network. Telemundo is to the Hispanic community what Fox New is to conservatives. Telemundo is THE new outlet where Hispanics get their news.
In an interview aired this past Sunday on “Meet the Press,” newly elected Speaker of the House told moderator Chuck Todd that the House would not be bringing a comprehensive immigration bill to the floor for a vote as long as the current president is in off because “the president is untrustworthy on the subject of immigration reform.”
In ninety days the American people will officially begin the process of selecting the next leader of the free world. Iowa will hold its caucus on February 1st. New Hampshire voters will cast their primary ballots on February 9. South Caroline is next on February 27.
The general election is one year from today.
What will the GOP do to attract the Hispanic vote that is key to their winning the White House?
If the last 100 days are any indication of what lies ahead…