Round 3!

Republicans gather in Boulder, Colorado tonight where they will stage their third presidential debate.
Tonight’s event will be held under very different circumstances than the previous two.

For the first time in the 100+ plus days of this campaign season, Donald Trump is no longer leading in all the polls. Ben Carson, the man whose political success remains an enigma, now leads Trump in Iowa. Jeb Bush, the odds on favorite back in June, faces the very real possibility that his run may be over. Latino conservative Republicans have issued an ultimatum to Party leaders. The US government just announced a controversial new military strategy in Iraq and Syria. And finally, today the House is expected to take up a vote on a “bi-partisan” two year budget that has inflamed the divisiveness within the Party ranks.

Here is what I’ll be looking for this evening.

TRUMP – Four respected telephone polls have Trump now trailing Carson in Iowa. The most recent CBS/NYT poll has Carson leading Trump nationally. Trump doesn’t like being challenged. His modus operandi is to attack whomever his closest competitor may happen to be. Most of the attacks are personal. Nothing is off limits. I expect Trump to go hard and often at Carson. I’ll be curious to see how he goes about it and how that plays with voters in the post-debate polling.

CARSON – Anyone who knows competition knows that it is harder being the “hunted” than being the “hunter”. For the first time since announcing his campaign; Ben Carson enters tonight’s festivities as the frontrunner. Trump will certainly go after him. I expect others on stage to do the same. Part of Carson’s appeal to voters is his calm soft spoken demeanor. I’ll be watching to see how he responds to the pressure.

“JEB!” – The “Jeb!” campaign is in trouble. The campaign is hemorrhaging money and laying off staff. When last seen the once presumptive nominee was going off on a petulant rant against voters for rewarding those who based their campaigns on divisiveness versus the issues. He told voters that he had: “Lots of cool things I could be doing rather than sitting around being miserable...” “Jeb!” recently retreated to Houston where a “campaign reset” summit was held. “Jeb!” was joined there by Bush 41, Bush 43, and a host of major donors and advisors. Trump, who gets under “Jeb’s!” skin like nobody else, accused “Jeb!” of “running home to mommy and daddy.” Clearly the Bush brain trust understands that they are at a critical moment in the campaign. Cleary they understand that their candidate’s performance tonight will be pivotal for any chance of success moving forward. I’ll be watching to see how this “campaign reset” plays out tonight.

LATINOS – Yesterday, the American Principles Projects Latino Partnership, a coalition of influential conservative Latino Republicans issued a stern warning to the Republican Party…elect Trump and his anti-immigrant rhetoric and you are on your own. “Heed our warning: don’t expect us to come to your side during the general election. If you are not with us now, we won’t to be with you then. If you insult us now, we will be deaf to you then. If you take us for granted now, we will not recognize you then.” That warning was issued by Rosario Martin: former Treasury Secretary to George W. Bush. Ms. Martin’s statement came as reports from Washington seemed to say that regardless of the candidate the GOP led congress will not be moving to enact immigration reform legislation any time soon. There are reports that Paul Ryan agreed not to bring immigration reform to the floor “under this current president” as a condition to receiving Freedom Caucus’ support for his run at the Speakership. I expect immigration reform to come up in tonight’s debate and I’ll be watching to see how Trump and the other candidates respond to these specific events.

FOREIGN POLICY – Last week Kurdish forces stormed an ISIS prison in Iraq for the purpose of rescuing 75 prisoners who had been condemned to death. The raid went badly and US Special Ops forces were called in to assist. The prisoners were rescued but one American: Master Sargent Joshua L. Wheeler was killed in the battle. Master Sgt. Wheeler was serving his 14th deployment. Earlier this week in testimony before the Armed Services Committee, Defense Secretary Ash Carter informed the committee of what amounts to change in military strategy in the heretofore undeclared war to defeat ISIS. Carter told the committee that US Special Ops forces would be “supporting capable partners” as happened in the attack on the ISIS prison. He also said that the Special Ops forces would be “conducting such missions directly” which opens the door for US forces to take the fight to ISIS on their own. The Obama administration has repeatedly beat back any notion of US boots on the ground in a “combat” role. Now the DOD is saying that US troops will be conducting ground operations against ISIS both in support of and independent from our coalition partners…in both Iraq and Syria. This is a major shift in US policy that has received little scrutiny from the media. I will be watching to see how the candidates deal with it tonight. Assuming of course that it even comes up.

BUDGET – Speaker Boehner and the White House have cobbled together a two year budget agreement. The deal heads off what could have been two contentious future votes to raise the debt ceiling and fund the government. The question is cannot pass through congress. Fiscal conservatives in both the House and Senate hate it because it increases government spending by $80+ billion. Dems hate it because it reduces entitlement disability benefits. The fact that both sides are pissed off means that everyone must give a little to move things forward. The bill will be placed on the House floor for a vote, today. Its’ passage or failure is certain to result in a lively discussion tonight.

Sailing Through Politics

Engaging in politics is like embarking on an oceangoing voyage. The journey is fluid. At one moment you find yourself buoyed by calm waters and favorable winds. The next you are struggling to stay afloat as a sudden storm front crashes forty foot swells across your bow.

For the past several days the political spotlight has been on the Democrats as they chart their course toward the next election. By all accounts the voyage is going well.

Democrats staged their first presidential debate. Unlike the sophomoric food fight produced by the Republicans; the Democrats came off as serious people discussing serious issues. The frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, righted her heretofore rocky ship and came across as a very polished and knowledgeable candidate. Bernie Sanders also did well demonstrating that he can hang with Clinton over the long haul. Sanders authored the highlight of the debate when he came to Clinton’s defense over the endless inquiries about her emails: “The American people have heard enough about your damn emails.” A bit of humanity and camaraderie not often found in the murky sea of politics. The evening’s festivities may not have been as entertaining as the Republican comedy hour but it clearly showed that Democrats were ready to govern. The optics drew a stark contrast to the Republican crew of not yet ready for prime time players.

Next port of call…the Benghazi hearings. Clinton was not subpoenaed to appear…she did so voluntarily. Committee Chairman Gowdy offered her the option of a closed door private testimony or a public hearing. She chose the latter. Now we know why. The results speak for themselves. By all accounts…both liberal and conservative…she schooled the Republicans in the art of politics. She navigated the rocky shores of Benghazi with little if any damage. Thanks to the Republicans she emerged from the eleven hour inquisition an even stronger presidential candidate than before.

And then then came Joe Biden. Biden had been struggling over the prospects of embarking on another presidential voyage. Last week he came to the conclusion that another campaign just wasn’t in the cards. As Biden announced his decision from the White House Rose Garden, he exhibited all the class and humanity that have made him one of the most beloved politicians in our nation’s history.

Now the spotlight shifts to the Republicans.

Just a few days ago there was a mutiny within the GOP ranks. They threw their captain overboard. Their first mate as well. Now it appears that Seaman Paul Ryan is prepared to take the helm. But Ryan’s ascension to the captaincy is no sure thing. A faction called the Freedom Caucus favors another. They will undoubtedly demand further concessions if they are to throw their full support behind Ryan. A rancorous vote for the captaincy is scheduled for this week. Should consensus prove illusive there will be a price to pay. Just ahead lies yet another vote to raise the debt ceiling. Difficult waters to navigate from a rudderless ship.

Meanwhile there is a GOP presidential campaign to be waged. The Party will stage another debate this week. By all accounts the entertainment value will far exceed the substance.

Donald Trump is on a rampage. For the first time in 100 days Trump is not leading in all the polls. Carson has overtaken Trump in Iowa. Trump is killing all comers in every other state. But Carson leads in Iowa essentially because the soft spoken Carson appeals to evangelicals. Naturally Trump weighed in on Carson’s “extremely low energy” and questioned Carson’s Seventh Day Adventist religion.

Jeb Bush is in the news. The once presumptive nominee is hemorrhaging money while plummeting in the polls. Forced to announce cutbacks in staffing and events; a clearly frustrated candidate took his anger out on the voters. Sounding more like a petulant child than a presidential candidate; Bush said he was fed up with the divisiveness of the campaign: “If this election is about how we are going to fight to get nothing done, then I don’t want anything, I don’t want any part of it. I don’t want to be elected president to sit around and see gridlock become so dominate that people are literally in decline in their lives. That is not my motivation. I’ve got a lot of really cool things that I could do other than sit around being miserable, listening to people demonize me and feeling compelled to demonize them. That’s a joke. Elect Trump if you want that.” Jeb then retreated to Houston where he met with Bush 41, Bush 43, Barbara Bush and a number of major donors. Naturally Trump weighed in…taunting Bush for “meeting with mommy and daddy.”

Then there is Marco Rubio. Rubio has decided that he hates serving in the senate. So he has given up on it in the middle of his first term. Rubio announced that he will not seek re-election. It’s the White House or bust. Perhaps that explains why Rubio has missed more votes than any other senator. 59 votes to be exact. Rubio has been questioned before on his blatant absenteeism. He said the votes don’t matter because: “A lot of these votes don’t mean anything. They’re not going to pass, and even if they did the president would veto them.” If Rubio is so disenchanted he could resign. But why give up $175,000 in taxpayer paid salary…plus benefits…when you can collect it for doing nothing.

Smooth sailing for the Democrats. Troubled waters for the GOP

Another GOP Disaster

I spent the better part of yesterday watching Hillary Clinton’s testimony before the House Benghazi Committee.

Yes, I admit that I have no life…but yesterday's hearing was like a multi-car pileup. It’s really bad…and you don’t want to look…but somehow you can’t seem to turn away.

Let me start by saying that I am not an avid fan of Hillary Rodham Clinton. In my view she has spent the better part of her career treading a fine line between serving her country and serving her own self interests. Her decision to ignore 2009 administration regulations and use a personal email address to conduct sensitive state department business was as self-serving as it was reckless. Her decision to archive those emails on a personal server in her home was in my opinion the result of an unhealthy paranoia about personal privacy and a well thought out plan to avoid any freedom of information inquiries that were certain to come in the future.

That said, words cannot describe the rude, spiteful disrespectful and embarrassing manner in which she was treated by the Republican members of the Benghazi Committee.
For eleven hours Secretary Clinton made herself available to the whims of an angry mob. She was calm, professional and in total command of the subject material. Dare I say…presidential. She was clearly the only adult in the room. For their part...the GOP members on the committee acted more like an angry mob than a committee of statesmen looking for the truth.

The Republican members of the committee were so intent on crushing her that they could not seem to get their story straight. Each member appeared to have an independent view on what happened in the time leading up to the attack. Each member seemed to have a different view of Secretary Clinton’s failure in handling the situation. Some argued that she was indifferent to the needs of the embassy’s security requests. Others argued that she made herself available to close friends like Sydney Blumenthal but remained unavailable to Ambassador Stephens. Still others tried to show that as the attack was in progress she ordered the military to stand down; thereby allowing four Americans to die.

Secretary Clinton calmly refuted each accusation; citing testimony from previous impartial witnesses and noting the findings of the eight Republican led committees that had previously investigated the incident.

When the Republican members weren’t stumbling all over themselves to get at the red meat they were going off on tangents; boring in with questions that had nothing to do with their stated purpose of finding out the truth about the attack on Benghazi.

It became clear early on that Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy was right; the purpose of this hearing was not to learn the truth about Benghazi. The purpose of this hearing was to damage the presumptive Democratic nominee and thereby weaken her chances in the upcoming general election. In that regard…yesterday’s hearing was an embarrassment…a complete failure for which Republicans may never recover.

As one Republican lawmaker told FOX News during one of the breaks: “If they continue with this line of questioning they might just as well swear her in as president right now.”

Don’t believe me? Check out this morning’s newspapers. They are chock full of comments from conservative pundits and lawmakers lamenting the unmitigated disaster of yesterday’s hearing.
Or listen to committee Chairman Trey Gowdy's own words as he faced reporters after the hearing. Congressman Gowdy was asked if the committee had learned anything new from Secretary Clinton’s testimony. “I don’t think we learned anything new from the last time she testified.”

Seventeen months of inquiries…$4.6 million dollars…eleven hours of testimony…nothing new learned. The only effect being that the target of this investigation…Hillary Rodham Clinton…is better positioned to win the Oval office now than she was when the whole thing started.

The Republican Party! Ready…Fire…Aim!

Three Days To Decide

The GOP has reached an important crossroad.
They have a choice. They can continue to focus their efforts on a strategy of obstruction and opposition as they have for the past seven years. Or they can exercise their control of the legislative branch to offer proposals that move their agenda and the country forward.

“Opposition” or “Proposition.

That is the choice that Paul Ryan gave the Republican caucus when he agreed to allow his name to be placed in consideration for Speaker of the House.

Ryan gave his caucus until the end of the week to decide.

Ryan has no interest in the speakership. He is content to spend his time doing the only job he ever wanted…chairing the powerful Ways and Means Committee. But the Party needs him because apparently he is the only one who can unite their fractured caucus.

So after several days of deliberation Ryan has thrown his hat into the ring. But he did so with conditions: that the party would unite behind him…that it would move from being a party of opposition to one of proposition…that it would change the current rules that allow one disgruntled member to set into motion the process to unseat him…and that he would not give up any of his family time. If the caucus found these “requests” agreeable then he would gladly serve.

He gave them three days to decide.

It didn’t take Ryan’s detractors three days to voice their opposition to his candidacy. Ryan had barely left the podium when a number of conservative media outlets joined several members of the party’s Freedom Caucus in blasting him. “King Ryan!” “Obama’s New Partner!” In the eyes of the far right Paul Ryan is not a true conservative.

For the record…Paul Ryan is a very conservative politician. His views on taxes, entitlements and social programs would make any progressive ill.

But Ryan is also a pragmatist. He understands that we have a two party system of government and that you need to find common ground across the aisle in order to move the country forward. You are never going to get everything you want. Compromise is the key. In Ryan’s eyes engaging in opposition and obstruction to the extent that it hurts the party and the country is not an option.

I agree with very little of Paul Ryan’s policy agenda. But I support his nomination for Speaker of the House. Paul Ryan is one of the few adults in the Republican caucus. He is one of the few conservative lawmakers that actually wants to govern and is willing to find common ground to get things done. In my view he is the clear choice to get our government working again.

There is a great deal at stake here. We are in the middle of the general election season. Maintaining control of the legislative branch is critical to moving the conservative agenda. The Oval Office is there for the taking. The deadline to raise the always controversial debt ceiling is November 3. The government will once again run out of money on December 11.

If the GOP can coalesce quickly around Ryan it will end much of the internal chaos and put the party on firm footing moving forward. If Ryan is defeated chaos and dysfunction will rule once more.

Opposition or Proposition!

They have three days to decide.

GOP Paying For Decades Of Lies

The Republican Party is a house divided. The divisiveness within party ranks has become toxic to the point of driving Speaker Boehner into early retirement and forcing his presumed successor, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, to withdraw his name from consideration.

Tonight the Republican House Caucus is scheduled to meet behind closed doors. Their goal this evening is to find enough common ground to elect a new Speaker of the House. Budget Chair Paul Ryan appears to be the only candidate on whom the Party can agree. But Ryan is a reluctant candidate and will only assume the thrown if certain conditions are met. If the Party can’t coalesce around Ryan then there is no telling what happens next.

The reality here is that Republican Party is on the verge of being destroyed from within. There is a genuine anger within the membership that may only be exceeded by the level of distrust felt toward the leadership.

The toxic atmosphere that permeates the Republican Caucus today is not a new phenomenon. It is an unhealthy environment that has been brewing for quite some time.

We saw the first glimpses of dissatisfaction acted out in protests by the Tea Party Republicans. As the anger and frustration grew incumbent candidates not deemed conservative enough found themselves facing primary challenges in the midterms from Tea party sponsored candidates. Today outsiders Trump, Carson and Fiorina dominate the polls while establishment candidates like Bush, Rubio and Kasich struggle to gain traction.

The other day I watched as a panel of veteran pundits struggled to make sense of the groundswell of opposition that has overtaken the Party. The answer is really quite simple.

The Republican establishment has spent the better part of the last 30 years lying to its base. Republican leadership has consistently failed to deliver on promises of lower taxes, lower deficits, less debt, less regulation and reducing the size of the federal government. To the contrary, once rewarded by the voters, Republican lawmakers tend to increase the debt and deficit. George H. W. Bush told the base to read his lips: “No new taxes.” Then proceeded to raise them anyway. Ronald Reagan raised taxes nine times during his two terms in office. Bush 43 led us into two unfunded wars and orchestrated a prescription drug plan for seniors that is the largest social welfare program in the history of the republic. His conservative leadership burned through a $500 billion surplus and left the country with a $5 trillion dollar debt.

The conservative base is mad as hell; and today they are doing something about it.

Three months ago the Republican establishment scoffed at the campaigns of "outsiders" Donald Trump and Ben Carson. Today those same naysayers grudgingly admit that Trump or Carson could actually win their party’s nomination. They also admit that should Trump or Carson prevail there most assuredly will be a Democrat in the White House for the next eight years.

The Republican Party is in serious trouble. The first positive step toward righting the ship would be to appoint an adult like Paul Ryan Speaker. That would require something absent among the Party ranks for quite some time. Compromise!

Trump Schools "Jeb!"

Republican candidates engaged in another food fight this weekend. Once again it was Donald Trump taking center stage; this time trading barbs with “Jeb!”

During a weekend interview with Bloomberg News, Trump had the very “Un-PC” audacity to lay blame for the 911 attacks at the feet of former President George W. Bush.
“I think I have a bigger heart than all of them. I think I’m much more competent than all of them. When you talk about George Bush… I mean say what you want, the World Trade Center came down during his time.”

Bloomberg’s Stephanie Ruhle pushed back saying: “Hold on, you can’t blame George Bush for that.”

But Trump wouldn’t back down. “He was president, ok? Blame him, don’t blame him but he was president. The World Trade Center came down during his reign.”

A visibly angry Jeb Bush came to his brother’s defense. He called Trump’s comments “pathetic.” He said: “Leadership is what you do after a crisis...my brother responded to a crisis and he did as you hope a president would do…he kept us safe.”

Sadly, “Jeb’s!” passionate defense of his brother is as flawed in logic as it lacking in historical fact.

Jeb would have us believe that his brother bares no responsibility for failing to prevent the 911 attack in his first year as president; yet be given all credit and due for stopping similar attacks during his final seven years in office. As if the Bush administration didn’t take office until September 12, 2001. Dick Cheney has been trying to re-write history with this same nonsensical rhetoric since he left office. It doesn’t pass the smell test. You can’t have it both ways.

CNN’s Jake Tapper addressed the matter with “Jeb!” on Sunday. He said if George W. Bush should not be held responsible for what happened during his watch on 911 then why should Hillary Clinton be held responsible for what happened in Benghazi? A fumbling stumbling “Jeb!” could only mutter that the situation was different.

Republicans are flummoxed that Trump would dare to utter such a damning statement against one of their own. What they fail to understand is that Trump is a good politician that understands the game. “Jeb!” Bush is not.

Trump’s comment boxed “Jeb!” in a corner. If “Jeb!” refuses to respond he’s labeled as “weak.” If he does respond then he is “lowering himself to Trump’s mud raking level.” Every minute that “Jeb!” is wasting defending his brother he losing in defining himself. Win, win for Trump. “Lose, lose for “Jeb!”

Time is getting short. Iowa and New Hampshire are three months away. If Trump takes both Iowa and New Hampshire…and right now it appears no one can stop him…its Katy bar the door. Engaging Trump in a food fight is wasted time. Laugh at him…dismiss him…but don’t elevate him by acting as if his words matter. Because that is exactly what Trump wants you to do?

Politicians, CEO’s and other people in power are fond of telling us that saying “The buck stops here.” “Jeb!", Dick Cheney and many other former members of the Bush 43 administration prefer to engage in what we call “passing the buck.” Whether it’s 911, the Iraq War, the banking disaster or the economic meltdown they would have us believe that it all happened on someone else’s watch.

To his credit George W. Bush has remained above the fray; refusing to criticize his successor or lash out in Cheney like defense of his policies. Former President Bush understands that his legacy is in the hands of the historians and there is nothing he can do or say to change that now.

A true leader shares the credit for his organization’s success and accepts the blame for its failures. It is with this understanding that we assign both the credit and the blame for the events that occur under a president’s watch. “The buck stops here.”

Apparently “Jeb!” didn’t get that memo. Trump handed just handed him a copy.

Win, win for Trump. Lose, lose for “Jeb!”

"You can check out any time you like...but you can never leave."

BREAKING NEWS – Word out of Washington is that the president will announce today that the US will leave 5,500 American troops in Afghanistan beyond 2016.

The original plan was to leave a residual force of 1,000 in country to allow the Afghan government the space to develop its military protection. But the resurgence of the Taliban, the continued presence of Al Qaeda and the rise of ISIS in the region threatened the Afghan government and caused a change in strategy.

It should be noted that where the original plan was for the remaining troops to provide force protection for the Afghan government; under the new plan this larger force will be called on to engage the enemy wherever Afghan and American interests are threatened.

The president’s new plan will cost an additional $14.6 billion borrowed dollars.

Critics say that the president’s altered course is the result of a lesson learned after “pulling the rug out from under the Iraqi government” by withdrawing all American forces from that country. The resulting vacuum allowing for the rise of ISIS and a country on the verge of collapse.

That critique, while politically convenient for those eager to deny history, is lacking in basic fact.

The truth is the president wanted to leave a residual 5,500 man force in Iraq for stabilization purposes. He was denied that request by the new democratically elected Iraqi government. Eager to show that it was not an American puppet; the Iraqis would only allow Americans to stay in country if they were held subject to Iraqi law. The president naturally refused and withdrew the troops. The Iraqi government has thus far been able to fill the vacuum left behind.

The Afghan government watched from afar as these events played out. Having no interest in repeating the Iraqis’ mistakes, the Afghans decided to accept the American protection. It is the Afghans who learned a lesson here…not the president.

Unfortunately I believe what we are seeing in this new plan is a glimpse into the future. The first of many similar plans that will be executed throughout the region.

There are probably a dozen small, weak countries in the region where America has a vested interest. I think that you will see us deploying small residual forces in these countries, to be used in concert with Special Ops, drones and military air attacks. All deployed in a coordinated effort to beat back the extremists and protect our allies. The cost in blood and treasure will be astronomical.

Or we could leave.

We could withdraw our troops and leave it to the locals to solve their centuries old disputes.

We find ourselves in an untenable situation that is the direct result of decades of bad interventionist policies. Militarily speaking we can roll back the Taliban, al Qaeda and ISIS with little effort. But unless we are prepared to occupy the taken ground in perpetuity we are engaging in a fool’s errand. And every time we drop a bomb, kick down a door or occupy a pasture we incite more and more extremists to join the battle.

Senator Lindsey Graham is a war hawk. He has never met a war that he didn’t want to wage. He was recently asked if he could see an end to the Middle East conflicts. “When do we leave?” He was asked. “Never!” He replied. “You can never leave.”

The American people are not interested in the prospect of unending wars. They have too many problems of their own to concern themselves with the plight of the Palestinians or the Israelis or the Syrians. The American people checked out of Iraq long before the war was over. After 15 years they have long since checked out of Afghanistan. But the politicians in Washington aren’t listening.

I guess Lindsey Graham is right. The Middle East has become our Hotel California...

“You can check out any time you like…but you can never leave.”