Thank You!

On this the eleventh anniversary of the day the towers fell we’d like to step away from politics for a moment to say thank you.

Thank you George W. Bush

Thank you Barak Obama

Thank you to the CIA and the intelligence community

Thank you to the FBI.

And a special thank you to all the men and women of the armed services.

Thank you to all those who have kept our country safe since that horrible day eleven years ago.

This Isn't Working!

When you are running a referendum campaign you aggressively attack the record of your incumbent opponent while holding the specifics of your own political plans close to the vest.  Mitt Romney and his handlers have made the tactical decision that running a referendum campaign on the president’s record is the surest path to the White House.

The problem is it’s not working.   

Yesterday Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan appeared on the Sunday morning talk shows with the specific intention of NOT making any news.  While both candidates were vociferous in their criticism of the president’s policies neither was willing to get very specific about their own. 

Mitt Romney, appearing for the first time on Meet the Press stated once again that he would reduce taxes and reform the tax code by eliminating loopholes.  But he refused to provide specifics as to which loopholes he would cut.  Paul Ryan was asked the same question on conservative friendly FOX NEWS.  He too refused to be specific on the loopholes saying that he and Mr. Romney would debate those specifics with congress AFTER the election.

The only loopholes that have any substantive effect on revenues are the deductions for mortgage interest, charitable contributions and health care costs. Absent any information to the contrary we can only assume that these are the loopholes Romney/Ryan intends to close.  To suggest eliminating any of these would be political suicide…thus the silence.

This unwillingness to talk specifics has been evident ever since Romney selected Ryan as his running mate. 

Let’s start with domestic policy.  When Romney chose Ryan, the consensus was that the Republican Party ticket was embracing the tenants of the Ryan Budget and the Ryan Plan to reform Medicare and Medicaid.  But when pressed both men have run away from those proposals.  Ryan says they are running on Romney’s vision for the future…not his.  Romney says he has his own plans…but won’t tell us specifically what they are. 

The same holds true with defense.  Romney blusters about Libya, Syria, Iran and strangely enough, Russia.   He blasts Obama’s foreign policy and pummels the president for proposing the drastic cuts to defense spending outlined in the sequestration agreement.  But what little Romney will tell us about his own defense policy includes the exact same sanctions that the president has taken.  And the leading Republican advocate for the sequestration defense cuts that Romney deplores…was Paul Ryan.

This attack and evade strategy isn’t working.  Here’s the proof.

In the month of August the Obama Campaign out raised the Romney Campaign $114 million to $111 million.  That is the first time in months that team Obama has surpassed Romney in the all important $$$ category.

The Romney Campaign expected the traditional post convention bump in the polls.  They didn’t get it.  However Obama has seen his poll numbers go up 5 points since Charlotte.

The path to 270 electoral votes has narrowed for the Romney Campaign.  They have pulled their ads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin…a sure sign that they no longer consider those states winnable.

Over the past several months this race has been considered a dead heat.  But recent polls show the president’s approval rating up 5 points.  He holds a five point lead over Romney among all registered voters.  He now holds a 6 point lead in the all important battleground state of Ohio.  No Republican has ever won the presidency without capturing Ohio.

POLITICO reports that senior staff members in the Romney Campaign have said that they have internal polling showing Governor Romney trailing the president by as many as 8 points.

This isn’t working. 

If Romney intends to win the White House he has to change gears.  If he has any core beliefs he needs to tell us what they are.  If he has specific plans to fix the economy he needs to reveal them…all of them…no matter how tough they may be to swallow.

Romney has the time and the money to turn this election in his favor.  The question is does he have the political courage.  

  

    

Romney's Path To Victory Narrows

The Romney Campaign has pulled its ads from the key swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

Since the Romney campaign has raised more money than God and will get another huge infusion of cash from securing the Republican nomination; we can assume that this action is not for lack of funds.  It tells us that the campaign has given up on winning these states and intends to double down in the other crucial battleground states of Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. 

It also tells us that Romney’s path to 270 electoral votes has narrowed substantially.

   

A Humbled Obama Asks For Your Vote.

A reflective and humbled Barak Obama accepted his party’s nomination for a second term and brought to a close a very successful Democratic National Convention. As we watched his speech we were looking for two things that we felt were missing in Mitt Romney’s remarks:  1.) Specifics as to where he wants to take the country and how he intends to get there and 2.) An affirmation that he truly understands the plight of average Americans.

The president’s speech was short on specifics and lacked the soaring oratory that we have come to expect.  He said that in the next four years he would recruit a 100,000 math and science teachers, create a million new manufacturing jobs and reduce the deficit by 4 trillion dollars.  He said that he would double net exports, cut oil exports and help train two million people at community colleges to fill existing job openings.  These are certainly loft and worthy goals.  But we remain uncertain of how he intends to achieve them.

While the presidents’ remarks were short on policy specifics they were long on reflection.  “I recognize that times have changed since I first spoke to this convention.  Times have changed…and so have I.”  “While I am proud of what we have achieved together, I am far more mindful of my own failings, knowing exactly what Lincoln meant when he said, “I have been driven to my knees many times by the overwhelming conviction that I had no place else to go.” 

This is a president who came into office perhaps a bit naïve as to the enormity of the country’s problems and the real consequences that result from every single decision a president makes.  Now, four years wiser he understands the power and the limitations of the office; and he grasps the enormous responsibility that he holds in his hands.  “I am no longer a candidate. I am the president.”  It is clear to us that he “gets it.”

In the end, this was a huge week for the Democrats.  If you are scoring these two pep rallies…the Democrats won in a blow out.  From the speeches to the optics to the overall orchestration the Democrats far outshined their Republican counterparts.  We expect the president and the party will get a good size bump in the polls from these proceedings.

Immediately after Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate we said that this was a clear choice election between two very different paths for the country.  And that over the next three months there would be four opportunities for each side to make its case to the American people:  the conventions and the three debates.  The Democrats were the clear victors in round one.  Some have opined that the president’s acceptance speech was short on specifics and reserved in tone because victory is in hand and caution is the winning strategy. But Democrats should be wary of misinterpreting the euphoria from last night’s proceedings. A successful convention does not an election make. 

The Democrats are the clear victors in the convention wars.  But today reality returns as we get the latest job numbers.  And three crucial debates loom on the horizon.  There is still a very long way to go.        

        

"Bubba Being Bubba"

We have all been in situations where an event is so overhyped that the event itself can never meet expectations.  That is never the case with Bill Clinton.

Last night Bill Clinton did what Bill Clinton does best.  In a rambling 48 minute speech that lasted twice its allotted time the former president gave his full throated support for the re-election of Barak Obama.  He outlined the extraordinarily difficult circumstances Obama faced upon taking office saying that no one, no  president, not himself nor any of his predecessors could have turned the economy around in four years.  He outlined the actions the president took to right the economy and he explained what they meant to the lives of Americans.  He dismantled the criticisms leveled against this president by the Republicans and he explained why the Republican plans for the future won’t work.  And he did all of this in a manner that was easily understood by his audience.  For all Obama’s oratory skills he has never been able to sell his presidency as effectively as Bill Clinton did last night. 

Bill Clinton is not a motivator.  He is a distiller.  He riffs and postulates and sometimes he goes off the reservation.  By all estimates almost 50% of last night’s speech was ad-libbed.  (The toughest job in the hall had to be the guy running the teleprompter.)  But in the end he has the extraordinary ability to sift through all the noise and nonsense and explain things in a way that connects with the American people.  And that’s what he did last night.  It was vintage “Bubba being Bubba.”

Tonight it will be President Obama’s turn.  By all accounts this will be a policy speech.  We hope so.  We will be looking for specifics on where the president wants to take the country and how he intends to get there.  Clinton cleared out the weeds of the past.  No we’ll see if the president can provide a clear path toward the future.

The Democrats have certainly convinced us that they know how to run a convention.  Now we’ll see if the president can convince voters that knows how to run the country.     

Dems. Hit It Out Of The Park

Over the past several months we have been very critical of the Democrats inability to connect with the American people.  From health care reform to equal pay for equal work to the bail out of the auto industry to TARP to the stimulus, Democrats have failed miserably in connecting the benefits of their policies to the daily lives of Americans.  The president assumed responsibility; admitting recently that his biggest failing was having been “so focused on getting the policy right” that he neglected to “tell the story.”  Pundits opined that the muddled message and lagging economy had tempered the enthusiasm among the party faithful for the president and his agenda.  Democrats were warned that if they wanted to elect the president to a second term they could ill afford to allow that malaise to cast a pall over their national convention.    

Last night, Democrats responded with an opening night that reverberated with emotion and energy.  Pundits from all political persuasions were struck by the palpable enthusiasm within the hall and wondered aloud where it had been hiding for all these many months.  The happy party atmosphere exhibited last night by the Democrats stood in stark contrast to the angry subdued scene that played out at last week’s Republican convention.  While the Republicans were all about individualism, money and achieving success the Democrats celebrated community and the important role that others played in helping us along life’s journey.  The contrast between the two conventions in terms of orchestration, message and enthusiasm was palpable.    

Perhaps the reason for this enthusiasm was that for that for the first time Obama surrogates stepped to the microphone and defended the president’s record with great passion.  Former Obama Chief of Staff and current Chicago Mayor, Rahm Emanuel enumerated the daunting problems the Obama administration faced upon taking office: an recessionary economy on the brink of a depression, two wars, the collapse of the banking industry, the collapse of Wall Street, the collapse of the auto industry, the collapse of the housing market, the monthly loss of 750,000 private sector jobs, massive unemployment, growing poverty and runaway health care costs.  Emanuel correctly noted that any one of these problems was sufficient enough to doom a presidency; and he credited president Obama with making the tough decisions necessary to turn the economy around. 

That was the last speech that looked backward into history.  Speaker after speaker followed Emanuel with a positive message about the future.  And where the Republicans marched through a parade of governors who talked about their own accomplishments while barely mentioning Mitt Romney; this was all about Obama and what he had accomplished for the country.  Massachusetts Governor Duval Patrick enumerated several of the president’s accomplishments and challenged Democrats to “grow a backbone and stand up for what we believe in.”  San Antonio Mayor and keynote speaker Julian Castro explained that the president understands the plight of Americans and has fought hard to make their lives better.  He contrasted that with Mitt Romney saying: “Mitt Romney doesn’t get it…and he doesn’t understand how good he has had it.”

But the highlight of the night was the address given by Michelle Obama.  The first lady talked about her love affair with the president.  She provided never before details about their upbringing and how that upbringing has shaped the way that President Obama governs.  She said that the president understands and appreciates the American dream “because he lived it” and that “the decisions he makes aren’t political they are personal.”  She said that the president believes that “when you walk through that door of opportunity you don’t slam it behind you…you reach back and help someone else.” And that the measure of success is not how much money you make but how many people you help along the way.” She said that after watching her husband she understands that “serving as president doesn’t define who you are…it reveals who you are.”

The reviews of the first lady’s remarks were off the charts were off the charts.  Columnists and talking heads of from every political persuasion agreed that she hit it out of the park.  Pulitzer Prize winning columnist Eugene Robinson called it “the best speech…period.”  Others called it one of the top five or six political speeches ever given.  Rankings aside, everyone seems to agree that the Democrats far overshadowed their Republican counterparts.  And if the Democrats can continue in the same fashion over the next two nights they will rekindle the enthusiasm that swept Barak Obama into office four years ago.

Tonight Bill Clinton takes center stage.  He will be competing against the nationally televised season opener for the National Football League where the defending World Champion New York Giants will take on the nationally popular Dallas Cowboys.

Republicans are no doubt hoping for an epic shootout from the Giants and Cowboys; the kind of game that will pull viewers away from what is likely to be a typically “Bubba” performance.

            

           

A Golden Opportuinty For Democrats

The Democrats will open their convention tonight having been handed a huge opportunity by the Republicans. 

The GOP spent their time in Tampa presenting a mean spirited attack on the President’s policies that was just as short on specifics as it was on facts.  Even the theme of the Republican bash: “We Did Build It!” was based on a lie; a fabricated response to a comment made by the president and taken totally out of context by the Republicans.  Instead of offering a plan for the future the Republicans trotted out a parade of governors who spent their allotted time gloating about what a good job they were doing back home. Each governor only mentioned Romney as an afterthought.

The nominee followed right along.  Romney’s time at the podium was spent criticizing the president while offering nothing specific in the way of alternatives.  Clearly the goal was to make this election referendum on the president.  The message was simple…the economy sucks…its Obama’s fault…vote for Romney.

The polls show that the Republican message did not resonate with the voters.  The GOP failed to get the customary bump in the polls that usually follow a national convention.

Now the Democrats will have their opportuinty.  They will be asked a very simple question:  “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”  From our perspective the answer is obvious.  While the economy is still struggling, no one wants to go back to the way things were four years ago.  But it will be up to the Democrats to answer that question in a way that resonates with the electorate.  And in the process they must lay out a specific vision for the country’s future.  If Democrats can accomplish these two things they will go a long way to securing the independent voters they need to win this election.