Manna From Heaven

While most of us in the chattering class have been following the shiny object that is Donald Trump there is an equally compelling story playing out on the left side of the political ledger.

No, I’m not talking about Hillary’s “Servergate” soap opera. I’m referring to the amazing campaign being waged by Bernie Sanders.

Trump has been conducting a very successful national campaign from the comfort of his opulent Trump Tower. If Trump has something to say he simply calls the media outlet of his choice and presto, he reaches millions of voters while lounging in his robe and slippers. Last Sunday Trump appeared via phone interview on every single one of the morning news shows to defend his dustup with Megyn Kelly and to gloat about how powerful FOX NEWS President Roger Ailes called him to make nice.

Trump affords media access like no other candidate. He loves the attention and the media loves covering him even though his media appearances offer little in the way of policy substance. They usually morph into a rambling dialogue of self-conscience. Seldom do they end without including some amount of criticism of his opponents; often referring to them as “stupid” or “stiffs.” And of course no interview is complete without a healthy dose of how great he is and how fortunate we all are to be in his presence.

As ridiculous as it may seem Trump's strategy is working and he continues to lead his primary opponents in every single poll.

While Trump has been conducting a media based campaign from the comfort of his living room, Bernie Sanders has been quietly gaining momentum the old fashion way.

Sanders is out on the stump, knocking on doors, shaking hands and kissing babies. Where Trump is engaging in an air war Sanders is running a very effective ground game that is built for the long haul. The response has been nothing short of incredible.

Sanders draws huge enthusiastic crowds…larger than any other candidate. Sanders’ advanced teams are constantly having to move planned events to larger venues to allow for the enormous interest in “Bernie.” His last four appearances averaged over 25,000 each. Those are enormous numbers this early in the contest.

Once Sanders takes podium he does not disappoint. The self-described Socialist Democrat offers a populist message that is long on specifics and short on rhetoric. Where Trump criticizes his opponents at every turn; Sanders refuses to say a negative word about any of his challengers. There is something very genuine about Bernie Sanders that resonates with the voters.

The results speak for themselves. Sanders has been steadily climbing in the polls to where he has whittled Hillary’s once insurmountable lead to within the margin of error. Yesterday, for the first time a just released Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll has Sanders leading Clinton 44%-37%.

Can either Trump or Sanders sustain their current success? Most pundits think it highly unlikely. Anytime any of the talking heads comments on the incredible success that both of these campaigns are achieving, they always end somewhat smugly with: “But of course Trump/Sanders will never be the nominee.”

Why not? The “experts” ridiculed Reagan and he won. They ridiculed Carter and he did too. No one thought we would elect a black president until Barak Obama came along. Why not Trump. Why not Bernie.

I don’t know if Trump or Sanders can sustain their current run of success over the long haul. What I do know is that they are making this campaign very, very interesting.

For political wonks like me they are manna from heaven.

This & That

RUBIO – If you can get past all the hubbub about Donald Trump you will see that one of the biggest winners coming out of last week's debate in the eyes of the conservative faithful was Marco Rubio. Rubio’s performance has provided him a bump in the polls and a place in the conversation that rivals the mercurial rise of Carly Fiorina.

Rubio likes to portray himself as the fresh new face of the new Republican Party. A candidate who can appeal to both the moderate establishment and the more radical Tea Party base. But like most of the conservative candidates he has a problem with women.

Rubio is a pro-life candidate that opposes abortion even in the instances of incest and rape. When asked about a possible exception in cases where the pregnancy endangered the mother’s life he said: “Well, of all the exceptions people talk about, certainly protecting the life of the mother is the one that I think holds the highest validity. And there is a debate today, given modern medicine, whether there is any condition that only abortion could save a mother’s life in a viable pregnancy.”

I have to wonder how Senator Rubio would feel if it was his wife or daughter whose life was endangered by continuing “a viable pregnancy.” Would he make the same clinical analysis?

HILLARY – Hillary Clinton has agreed to release her controversial personal email server to authorities. Secretary Clinton is reported to have scrubbed the server after releasing 55,000 pages of handpicked emails to the State Department. By all reports an estimated 30,000 emails were lost in the scrubbing process. The technology nerds tell us that you can never completely scrub a server and that the emails will still be retrievable.

My guess is that if the emails are recovered they will reveal some previously unreported communication that will paint the secretary in a bad light. I would expect there to be either classified information or correspondence that ties favors granted by Secretary Clinton and her State department to donations to the Clinton Foundation or monies paid to the former president for personal appearances. Why else would you scrub the server?

BERNIE – Bernie Sanders is the hottest draw on the stump. Sanders has drawn wildly enthusiastic crowds averaging 25,000 to each of his last four events…far surpassing any other candidate. His performance has garnered him a steady rise in the polls to where he is now within the margin of error of the presumptive Democratic nominee; Hillary Clinton. His message appeals to the middle class and his refusal to attack his opponents has resonated with the voters.

Could Sanders sneak up on Hillary like Barak Obama did eight years ago?

Conventional Wisdom Does Not Apply To Trump

There is an old adage that cautions: “Never argue with a man who buys ink by the barrel.”

With that thought in mind…conventional wisdom says that if you are a conservative candidate looking for support you never criticize the national news
network that is in the business of supporting conservative candidates.

Unless you are Donald Trump.

Trump’s highly publicized dustup with FOX NEWS’ revered news anchor, Megyn Kelly was supposed to signal the end to The Donald’s run for the White House. Conventional wisdom said that the powerful FOX NEWS Network would certainly spend the next several news cycles in “retaliation mode” effectively tanking Trump in the polls and ending his run.

But FOX NEWS is in the “ratings” business. A record 24 million views tuned in to Thursday night’s debate and they weren’t there to watch Jeb Bush. Then Reuters released its post-debate poll showing Trump maintaining his substantial lead; doubling up his closest rival, Jeb Bush by 12 points.

FOX NEWS president, Roger Ailes is no dummy. He knows where his bread is buttered.

Yesterday, according to Donald Trump, Ailes CALLED TRUMP, and assured him that the FOX NEWS network would be fair to him in their future reporting. Last night Megyn Kelly appeared on her show and stated that she was ready to move forward. As I write this Trump is scheduled to appear on the FOX network’s “Fox and Friends” morning show.

Donald Trump is alive and well and still in this race.

Conventional wisdom does not apply to Donald Trump.

How Do You Spell Hypocrit? G...O...P

The conservative movement is in disarray. Its standard bearer, the Republican Party, is embroiled in a ruinous chaotic firestorm that is fueled by hypocrisy and an inflated sense of entitlement. And at the very core of the chaos and contention we find the ever present Donald Trump.

Trump added fuel to the fire on Friday when in his post debate comments he appeared to attribute moderator Megyn Kelly’s aggressive tone and tenor to her menstrual cycle: “You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes. Blood coming out of her…wherever.”

The main stream media, conservative news outlets and most of the other Republican candidates reacted to Trump’s comment with righteous indignation. RedState’s Erick Erickson reacted by disinviting Trump to speak at his important GOP confab this past weekend. “I don’t want Donald Trump around my daughter so I disinvited him.” Even the liberal New York Times published a front page lead article taking Trump to task. Pundits opined that most certainly this would be the straw that finally drove The Donald from the race.

Trump’s reaction was typical Trump. “No I’m not going to apologize. I have nothing to apologize for…When I said that I was referring to her eyes and nose...Only a deviant would think that.” He then went on to further castigate Kelly and Erickson.

One would expect that Trump’s comments, his pummeling in the media and his unremarkable debate performance would hurt him in the polls. Not so much.
Instead of crushing Trump’s candidacy the tsunami of criticism from both the media and the GOP establishment has turned the country’s most outspoken bully into a sympathetic figure. The most recent NBC poll has Trump still leading the pack by double digits. Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio round out the top five. Noticeably absent…establishment anointed frontrunner Jeb Bush and rising establishment star Scott Walker.

So what in the hell in going on here?

The RNC chieftains and the folks at FOX NEWS feel Trump is a cartoon character that is hurting the Party. They want him gone. Their sense of entitlement is stunning. FOX kicks off their debate by going after him aggressively in a clear effort to embarrass him in the eyes of the viewers and force him from the race. Instead of asking him substantive questions jobs and the economy…thoughtful questions that might unveil his lack of knowledge about key issues…FOX goes for theater. First they ask if everyone will pledge fealty to the Party and the Party’s ultimate candidate knowing full well Trump is the only one up there that will not. Then they try shock and awe by repeating some of his disparaging comments about women.

I’m not defending Donald Trump. But I didn’t hear the FOX moderators ask the other candidates if they would support Trump were he to emerge the victor. I didn’t hear them ask Jeb Bush to explain why he scoffed at spending $500 million on women’s health issues. In fact I didn’t hear any of the candidates asked about jobs or the economy or our outdated infrastructure or how to stop ISIS.

While the GOP establishment and its media partners are ripping Trump for his misogynistic comments its legislative branch in congress is saying no to equal pay for equal work, no to abortion, no to funding Planned Parenthood, no to contraceptives and no to funding women’s health issues. The hypocrisy here is palpable.

There is a very good reason that three of the top five in that post debate poll have never run for elected office. The GOP faithful are frustrated. They are tired of their politicians making promises that they never keep. Donald Trump has touched a nerve. Disparaging Trump plays right into his “outsider” narrative. It is why he is still standing in spite of his continued efforts to shoot himself in the foot.

The ruling class and the main street media scoffed at Reagan and said he would never win. They said Carter would never win either. They said the same about Clinton…and Obama. To discount Trump’s appeal to the GOP masses is to do so at one’s own peril. Force Trump to run as an Independent and Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States.

Speaking of Hillary! Note to the GOP. Stop all the faux outrage over Trump’s dustup with Megyn Kelly. Had Trump said the same thing about Hillary Clinton you’d be laughing your asses off and buying him a drink.

Fiorina, Kasich, Rubio Shine!

Last night the Republican Party staged its highly anticipated coming out party for the GOP’s slate of presidential candidates. The reviews are in and by all accounts the event met expectations.

Here are my votes for the evening’s winners and losers.

The post-debate buzz was all about Donald Trump and The Donald still holds serve the morning after. Trump was vintage Trump. Any expectations that Trump would tone down his “Trumpness” in order to appear more presidential were quickly squashed.

It was clear from the beginning that the FOX NEWS moderators intended to zero in on the frontrunner. The night began with the moderator asking the candidates to raise their hand if they were UNWILLING to pledge their support for the eventual Party nominee; and UNWILLING to promise that they would NOT run as a third party candidate. Donald Trump was the only candidate to raise his hand…and FOX knew that would be the case.

In quick succession the moderators asked Trump about some of his unflattering comments about women and his four bankruptcies. Trump dismissed them both; the first as an obsession with political correctness in this country and the second as a legal tool commonly used by all successful businessmen.

The questions were fair. The problem that I had is that while the FOX moderators were throwing fastballs at Trump’s head they were lobbing softballs down the middle of the plate to the other folks on stage. It is a view shared by a large segment of the audience and the subject of scathing remarks in both the conservative Drudge Report and the liberal New York Times.

In my opinion the clear winners of the prime time event were Marco Rubio and John Kasich. Rubio’s youthful appearance and flawless delivery of a number of salient points garnered him an “A” in my book. Kasich’s comfortable good guy persona, his ability to highlight his very successful record as Ohio’s governor, his moving views on gay marriage and his compassionate rational for accepting Medicaid expansion in his state placed him right up there with Rubio as a clear winner last night.

Jeb Bush got better as the night moved along but did little to assuage concerns about his readiness for the task. Scott Walker, much like Bush, was there but did little to stand above the fray. Chris Christie had a few good moments; thanks mostly to a back and forth with Rand Paul. Paul was the clear loser of the evening. It was clear from the beginning that he was desperate to draw attention to his floundering campaign. To me he came across as a desperate little boy throwing a hissy fit to get someone’s…anyone’s attention.

If your favorite candidate was on stage for the prime time debate…and I have not mentioned his name…it’s because I cannot remember who he is.

Yesterday I wrote that it has been my experience that many times in big events such as these it is a previously unknown personality that steals the show. Such was the case last night when Carly Fiorina not only dominated the 5PM debate but gave a performance that will undoubtedly get her on the prime time stage next month. Words would not do justice to her performance. Suffice to say she licked ass. And if last night’s “kids table” performance is a predicator of things to come; she will be a force to be reckoned with.

Carli Fiorina was he overall winner of the evening’s festivities with Rubio and Kasich right behind.

As for Trump…it has been proven thus far that any intellectual analysis of Mr. Trump’s future in this race has been dead wrong. It think Trump may slide a bit in his dominance in the polls but that will be more do to a surge from Fiorina, Rubio and Kasich then any damage inflicted by the FOX moderators. In fact according to early reports, the unfair manor in which Trump was treated seems to have strengthened his support among the Trump faithful and deflected what would be game ending blows to any other candidate.

We’ll see what the polls say next week.

Showtime!

If you are a political wonk today is Christmas in August.

Tonight 17 Republican presidential hopefuls will make their case to the American people. The top 10 poll ranked candidates will take the prime time stage at 9PM. Seven remaining contestants will precede them at 5PM. A record 15 million are expected to tune in to the FOX NEWS produced event; the largest audience in cable news history.

Here are a few of the things that I will be looking for.

TRUMP – All eyes tonight will be on the surprising front runner; Donald Trump. No matter what Trump does he WILL make news. The question is will we see the bombastic, opinionated non-scripted Trump that has doubled up his shocking lead over his closest challengers? Or will we see a more thoughtful, well prepared, dare we say presidential Trump that aspires to be the leader of the free world. How will he respond if attacked? Will he stumble if asked for policy specifics? Trump already has some seasoned political operatives grudgingly admitting that he may be the real deal. A good performance tonight will legitimize his frontrunner status.

BUSH – Jeb Bush started out strong but he has wobbled of late. His performance as a candidate has paled in comparison to his ability to raise campaign funds. His recent campaign appearances have been plagued by stumbles and gaffs. He often seems uncomfortable out on the stump. Many have questioned his toughness and his commitment to the race. Tonight he has an opportunity to show his $100 million dollar donors that he not only wants to be in the race but that he is willing to fight for the prize.

FROM OUT OF NOWHERE – I am an avid sports guy. I have seen hundreds championship games in all the major sports. I can tell you that often times it is a relatively overlooked personality that steps out of the shadows to have the biggest impact on the biggest stage. Might that be the case tonight? For example, Mike Huckabee has been largely ignored by the media. But Huckabee is the only person on that stage that has been through this debate process before. Will Huckabee be able to draw on that experience to emerge from the shadows? Or will someone on the 5PM undercard give a performance so newsworthy as to launch himself/herself into the top tier.

Tonight’s debate is more about entertainment and performance than it is about substance and specifics. I doubt those of us old enough to remember the event can recall the policy differences between Kennedy and Nixon. But we remember the startling screen shots of the young composed Kennedy and the sweaty rumpled Nixon. We remember Reagan’s “There you go again” to Jimmy Carter. We remember Lloyd Bentsen chastising Dan Quale: “I knew John F. Kennedy. John F. Kennedy was my friend. You sir are no John Kennedy." We remember Rick Perry's "Oops!" and Mitt Romney's $10,000 wager. Will there be that kind of “moment’ tonight?

Optics matter! This will be the first opportunity that many of the viewers will get to look at these candidates. In order to emerge from this crowded field you have to project strength, likability and some command of the issues. If you aspire to win the presidency you have to make a positive impression tonight. There just aren’t that many head to head opportunities to let this moment pass.

The stakes tonight cannot be overstated.

FOX NEWS Arbitraily Changes Its Arbitrary Rules

If you follow this space you know that I have a real problem with the way the RNC has decided who will be allowed to run for its nomination for president. My angst revved up a notch when I learned that the RNC and its communication arm, FOX NEWS, arbitrarily changed the rules for admission at the eleventh hour.

Perhaps a little background is in order.

In 2012 the RNC staged 20 some debates which included enough presidential aspirants to field a softball team. The debates went on for months with the single common thread of everyone on stage beating up on the prohibitive front runner and eventual nominee; Mitt Romney.

The RNC concluded that the lengthy and often times heated process weakened Romney in the eyes the voters. Eventually the RNC decided that there were A.) far too many debates and B.) way too many potential nominees on stage.

In order to prevent a reoccurrence of that debacle for the 2016 election, the RNC decided they needed to cut the number of debates and winnow down the field as quickly as possible. What the RNC did not want was to assume the responsibility (RE: take the heat) for who was in the mix and who was out. So the RNC ceded the entire mess over to FOX NEWS.

FOX NEWS decided that there would be 6 debates (good) and that the participants would be decided by inviting the top 10 ranked candidates in the “five most recent national polls” to appear on the prime time stage (bad).

Last night FOX NEWS announced the top ten winners with Ohio Governor John Kasich narrowly bumping former Texas Governor Rick Perry off the stage. They also announced the 5 polls used to select the winners.

Here’s the thing.

Instead of using the "5 most recent national polls" as they indicated they would…they inexplicably skipped the 5th most recent poll…the NBC NEWS/WALL STREET JOURNAL poll…and chose to use poll #6…the Quinnipiac poll.

The NBC NEWS/WSJ poll had Kasich and Perry tied at 3 points each. The Quinnipiac poll had Kasich leading Perry by just over a point. In the final analysis factoring in either poll puts Kasich in over Perry. The NBC poll puts Kasich in by .8% over Perry while the Quinnipiac poll puts Kasich in by over a point.

So why the switch?

FOX NEWS says it skipped the NBC poll because: “The NBC/WSJ poll did not list the names of all the candidates when asking voters who they would pick for the GOP nominee.” Translation…”the Quinnipiac poll showed Kasich as the clear #10 while the NBC poll had Kasich and Perry tied. The Quinnipiac gives our process a greater sense of legitimacy in picking the top ten candidates. Please ignore any reference to the margin of error cited in each of the polls.”

Really?

Let me get this straight. The RNC decides to hand control of its presidential nomination process over to a cable news network. The cable news network sets a list of arbitrary criteria that includes polling which places half the field within the margin of error. Then the cable news network decides at the eleventh hour to change the criteria because one poll failed to follow a never before announced set of polling rules.

The result is that the governor of Ohio, and former FOX NEWS employee gets to appear on stage in his home state while the former four term governor of the second largest state in the union watches as his campaign arbitrarily ends.

As I watched FOX NEW announce its top 10 list I couldn’t help but remember what John Kasich said when he announced his candidacy. A reporter asked Kasich if his late announcement would hurt him in garnering enough support to be included in the important first debate. Kasich replied: “I’ll be in that debate whether or not I’m in the top 10.”

Apparently the former FOX NEWs host knew something we didn’t.

FOX NEWS arbitrarily decided to change its arbitrary rules.

What's next?