Is This How We Want Our Democracy To Work?

Sometime after 5PM today the Republican Party's communication department, FOX NEWS, will announce the names of the 10 Republican candidates that will be invited to participate in Thursday’s prime time debate. The seven losers will be relegated to the 5PM undercard.

If you are a Republican hopeful and you are not on that prime time debate stage there is a very real possibility that your campaign is over. For that you can thank the RNC and FOX NEWS.

The Republican National Committee in its infinite wisdom has relegated control of its nominating process to FOX NEWS. FOX NEWS has decided that the top ten candidates in five national polls will be invited to the prime time party. FOX NEWS refuses to name the 5 polls on which they will base their decision. They also refuse to divulge how they will determining the winner in the event of any ties. Are they rounding up to the nearest hundredth…nearest tenth? Are they rounding down? We don’t know.

Why do the calculations matter? Here’s why.

According to the average of five likely national polls Donald Trump is doubling the field. The first five or six winners are pretty clear. But candidates 7-15 are within mere percentage points of each other and all of them fall within the polls’ 2.5%-3.5% margin of error. It looks like Christie and Kasich are in and Perry is out. But who is to say? All three fall within the margin of error. Fiorina and Jindal, the only female and Indian candidates in the field, are out. But they fall within the margin of error as well. Ultimately FOX NEWS decides who gets featured on prime time television and who does not.

Pollsters are pissed. Monmouth has issued a strong statement objecting to the use of their polling data in determining the Republican field. They reason that their data is intended to track history not determine it. Marist announced that they will no longer poll voters regarding the ultimate nominee for the same reasons.

FOX NEWS could fix this. They could stage two consecutive 90 minute prime time sessions with candidates randomly chosen for each session. People would tune in.

Is this how we want our democracy to work? Do we really want billionaires setting the field and news outlets determining who gets national exposure?

"Biden Values" = Game Change

The big news over the weekend is that Vice President Joe Biden is considering a run at the White House. Those who characterize Biden as more cartoon character than serious politician may scoff at the thought, but I see a Biden candidacy as a game changer.

There are serious concerns among the Democratic faithful that Hillary Clinton’s candidacy may be vulnerable to a qualified Republican opponent. While Mrs. Clinton remains the clear frontrunner for the nomination, drama and scandal seem to follow her wherever she goes. Questions regarding her veracity and character dominate the news cycles to the extent that her unfavorable poll ratings continue to soar. Recent revelations about her emails and ties between her state department directives and huge donations to the Clinton foundation only fuel the narrative. Throw in coincidental seven figure payments to her husband for a nominal days work and you have the makings of conspiracy theories writ large.

Where Mrs. Clinton is seen as evasive, cold and calculating Joe Biden exudes warmth, honesty, integrity, decency and strength of character. While critics may like to point out his “crazy uncle” screw ups no one has ever questioned his values. Add decades of experience in the senate and as Vice President and you have the makings of a formidable candidate. President Obama called his choice of Biden as his Vice President: “the best political decision I ever made.” No small revelation from the guy who picked Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State.

During his final days before succumbing to cancer Biden’s son Beau encouraged his father to run. He told his father: “Washington needs “Biden" values.” Truer words were never spoken.

I don’t know if Joe Biden will enter this race. I don’t know if candidate Biden could ever make up the early organizational and fundraising lead amassed by the Clinton campaign. But should Joe Biden decide to run he will offer a stark and refreshing contrast to the political narrative that we have borne witness too for these past several months.

He will bring “Biden values.”

That’s a good thing.

I know this sounds crazy...

I know this will sound crazy. I am fully aware that by uttering these words I risk jeopardizing any credibility that I may have with those of you that follow this space. But in the interest of fairness and honesty I have to tell you what I believe in my heart to be true. So here goes.

Donald Trump is a legitimate candidate for the Republican Party nomination for the office of President of the United States!

There I said it.

I told you it would sound crazy. And I know it is very early in the game. But an honest review of everything that is out there makes it astonishingly clear that Donald Trump is a legitimate candidate for the presidency.

Don’t believe me! Check out Bloomberg Politics’ video of a New Hampshire focus group comprised of 12 Republican and Independent voters. Watch as they explain why they support Trump’s candidacy. I guarantee you will come away stunned. Not because you are watching a bunch of crazies. Quite the opposite. In my opinion these are well spoken, common sense folks who find themselves drawn to Trump the person…not Trump the celebrity billionaire.

“He says it like it is.”

“He speaks the truth.”

“He’s just tough, we need someone tough.”

“He’s like one of us. He may be a millionaire which separates him from everybody else, but besides the money issue he’s still in tune with what everybody is wanting.”

They like that he is not a politician…that he is successful…that he is a tough minded…and that he not only says what he thinks but he doesn’t back down in the face of criticism. They see him as a “Reaganesque” figure who will return class and greatness to the White House and to the country. While that may frighten the hell out of progressives it plays well with conservatives and independents.

If this focus group does not make you a believer then check out any of the recent national pools. Trump is the frontrunner in all of them. And a St. Petersburg Press poll released yesterday has shocked even the most steadfast Trump critic. The poll shows Trump leading all Republican hopefuls in Florida with 26% of the vote. Jeb Bush comes in second with 20% and Marco Rubio fourth at 10%. Beating favorite sons Bush and Rubio in Florida is no joke.

People keep expecting that something will crash the Trump campaign but so far nothing has. In fact every time Trump stumbles or some salacious allegation hits the news wire Trump surges in the polls.

Trumps calls illegal Mexican immigrants criminals and rapist. Trump causes a huge uproar when rips John McCain’s hero status. Trump is accused of sexually assaulting one of his ex-wives. Trump describes a woman using a breast pump as “disgusting.” These are incidents that would end most campaigns; but after each occurrence Trumps rose higher in the polls.

Yes, it is early. So the obvious question is “Can Trump sustain this lead?” Trump's critics say that it’s one thing to talk in generalities and rip your opponents but quite another to have specific ideas on the complex issues we are facing. When the time comes for Trump to be specific he will crash and burn. I’m not so sure.

Most voters are low information voters. They don’t get all up in the weeds on policy. The look at the candidate and they get a gut vibe about the person. They vote on that gut reaction because they don’t really believe the candidate can or will do all the things they promised. They believe Trump can be successful…because he has been.

Depending on the poll…Trump has anywhere from 20-26% of the support of Republican voters. As the field of seventeen hopefuls winnows its way down, the remaining 74-80% of the votes are going to gravitate to someone still in the race. Why not Trump?

I know it sounds crazy…but Trump is legit. If the Washington establishment refuses to recognize his legitimacy they do so at their peril.

Money for Nothin'

When the United States Supreme Court rendered its decision on Citizens United it forever changed the course of our democracy. No longer are a candidate’s qualifications or quick witted performance on the stump the keys to victory. Now all an aspiring candidate needs is one well-heeled benefactor to become a player for the most powerful office on the planet. Now one individual with deep pockets can effectively alter the course of history.

You probably think I’m going to go on a tirade about Donald Trump. Trump is certainly a good example of how money and celebrity can “trump” qualifications as the keys to a successful campaign. But at least Trump is using his own billions to fund his Shermanesque rampage through the halls of Washington. Trump has earned his celebrity and his billions. He’s not living his dream off the benevolence of others.

No, when I think of a politician who would not rate a nanosecond of thought were it not for the support of well-heeled benefactors one name comes immediately to mind.

Ted Cruz.

Ted Cruz’ Super PAC has raised roughly $38 million dollars to date. A paltry sum compared to the $100+ million raised by Jeb Bush but a significant amount none the less. Cruz has used that money to promote his presidential aspirations while at the same time shirking his duties as a US Senator.

While the Cruz campaign is long on rhetoric his senatorial career is short on substance. Cruz has one of the worst attendance records on floor votes and committee attendance of any of his colleagues. Of his 44 sponsored bills exactly “0” have shown any glimmer of a chance of becoming legislation.

While Cruz receives failing grades for his senatorial duties he has proven to be quite astute at alienating his colleagues in the chamber. To say Cruz is hated on the Hill is not a stretch. He has called Mitch McConnell a “liar”…feuded with John McCain…repeatedly derided and mocked his fellow lawmakers and tossed many of them under the bus when it suited his needs.

He met secretly with House Republicans to urge them to shut down the government rather than grant the president his funding requests. The House followed his lead to a disastrous end. 800,000 federal workers were furloughed…national parks closed…vacations ruined…$25 billion in GDP lost… and eventually a credit downgrade by Moody’s…the first downgrade in US history.

During the furor that followed Cruz told reporters that he “always thought shutting down the government was a bad idea but he admired the House Republicans for standing up for their principles.”

When the Obamacare rollout was having website difficulties Cruz was encouraging people not to enroll. He knew that for the ACA to be successful in needed an influx of young healthy applicants to offset the elderly, sick and infirmed. So Cruz focused on the younger crowd; telling them that enrolling in the ACA was a bad idea because the program would never get off the ground.

Noted for his intelligence, Cruz knew full well that by not enrolling in the ACA young adults were putting their financial future at risk. Cruz knew that one serious illness could be a financial disaster but he encouraged them not to enroll anyway.

Cruz later found himself and his family without health coverage when his wife quit her job to work Cruz’ presidential campaign. The Cruz family was covered under her former employer’s group plan. Did Cruz go without coverage as he had encouraged so many to do? No…he enrolled in Obamacare.

In spite of his poor political record and offensive personality Ted Cruz is a player in the upcoming elections. Why? Because four guys with fat wallets have decided to bankroll his campaign.

You see $36 of the $38 million that Cruz’ PAC has raised has come from four people: $15 million from fracking billionaires Farris and Dan Wilks; $11 million from hedge fund magnate Robert Mercer and $10 million from Cruz’ personal friend Toby Neugebauer.

On August 6 the GOP will host its first in a series of debates. Having a place on that stage is critical any Republican presidential hopeful. Ted Cruz will have a place on that stage. He will have a voice. Other more deserving candidates will see their campaigns end because Cruz took their spot at the podium. Not because he was more deserving or qualified. But because for guys with extra cash in their pockets decided he was worth the bet.

Money for nothin'

Trump and Sanders Shocking The Establishment

Rand Paul posts a video where he is seen cutting up the US Tax Code with a chainsaw.

Upon learning that Donald Trump has released Lindsey Graham’s cell phone number to the public; Graham posts a video where he demonstrates the various ways one can destroy a cell phone. Golf clubs, baseball bats and tall buildings are featured.

Mike Huckabee decides to voice his views on the president’s nuclear arms deal with Iran saying that the deal effectively “takes the Israelis and marches them to the oven door.”

In 10 days the communication arm of the Republican Party, FOXNEWS, will telecast the first in a series of presidential debates. FOX has informed the GOP that only the top ten candidates in five yet to be named national polls will be granted a place at the podium.

Wining a place on that stage is everything to the GOP hopefuls. As one conservative op-ed writer put it: “If you are not on that stage you are irrelevant.” Thus instead of focusing on the issues we see desperate GOP candidates resorting to gimmicks and inflammatory rhetoric in a blatant attempt to capture the attention of the voting public.
Why the desperation? Because Donald Trump has stolen the spotlight. Much to the chagrin of the Party establishment Donald Trump is the media darling that completely overshadows everyone else in the race.

Trump ranks first or second among GOP contenders in every national poll. Heading into the debates he is the clear frontrunner for the nomination. His message is a simple one…Washington is broken…our stupid politicians care more about being re-elected than they do about governing…and who better than Trump, the ruthless mega rich businessman, to negotiate deals that will make America great again. It is a populist message that is resonating with the American people to the extent that the GOP leadership is panicked over how to stop it. “He’ll never be the nominee” they say. They’ve been saying that since Trump announced and all he has done is gain in popularity.

The same holds true in the Democratic tent.

The coronation of Hillary Clinton has hit a snag. While Clinton still holds front runner status in the polls her “unfavorable” ratings continue to soar as she struggles to get her email message straight. Americans don’t trust her. They favor her over any of the GOP candidates…but they don’t trust her.

While Clinton is floundering Bernie Sanders is flourishing.

Sanders is skyrocketing up the polls; cutting Clinton’s once seemingly insurmountable leads to single digits. He is drawing huge crowds wherever he goes. Sanders took his road show into bright red Louisiana where he outdrew Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. Then he was off to Dallas and Houston where over ten thousand came to hear his message.
Like Trump, Sanders carries a populist tune. Higher wages, more jobs, rebuild our infrastructure. Unlike Trump, Sanders refuses to attack his opponents; preferring instead to focus on the issues. Voters are listening. Any self-proclaimed Socialist Democratic candidate that can generate that kind of enthusiasm in deep red Texas is a candidate deserves serious consideration.

Republican and Democratic leaders would very much like Trump and Sanders to go away so that the voters and the press could focus their attention on “the legitimate candidates.” But Trump and Sanders aren’t going anywhere. They will be here to the bitter end.

Trump and Sanders have caused a sea change in our electoral politics. Both men have huge opportunities in the upcoming debates. If they can comport themselves in a way that appears “presidential” under that enormous pressure they will force even the most ardent naysayers to consider them serious candidates.

Write this down…Trump and Sanders will each have a “defining moment” in the debates. A moment that will grab media headlines and monopolize the news cycle. Will it be enough to propel them to their party’s respective nomination? It’s too early to tell.

Trump and Sanders are resonating with the electorate. They are changing the very fabric of our politics. Can they win?

No one thought Obama could beat Hillary.

Common Sense = Exceptional?

The president gave a lengthy press conference yesterday. The purpose was to answer questions about the controversial nuclear arms deal with Iran. The president went to great lengths to defend the deal going so far as to challenge detractors to explain how the agreement fails to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

As the questions on Iran wound down a reporter asked the president if he would consider revoking Bill Cosby’s Presidential Medal of Freedom. The president said that there was no mechanism in place to revoke the medal…and then he said this:

“I’ll say this. If you give a woman, or a man for that matter, without his or her knowledge a drug, and then have sex with that person without consent, that’s rape. And I think this country, any civilized country, should have no tolerance for rape.”

I have to admit that I was stunned by the response to the president’s remarks. Not those from detractors who would disagree with this president over the rising and setting of the sun. I’m talking about the over the top praise heaped on the president by his supporters for having the “courage” to make such an emphatic statement. “Boy he really went there…he said it!” Fist bumps all around.

Seriously! Has our discourse plummeted to such a low water mark that a common sense statement of fact is worthy of political “hosannas” from the highest? “All hail the president for having the courage to tell it like it is! Boy he really went there!” C’mon!

It’s a sad day when common sense becomes “exceptional.”

Obama Bridges Beltway Disconnect

If you follow the main stream media reporting of the reaction inside the Washington beltway to the president’s deal with Iran you come away with the overwhelming impression that the United States has just made the worst foreign policy decision in the history of the republic.

“Catastrophic”…”Irresponsible”…”Dangerous”…”Naïve”…”Cosmic gamble” are just a few of the terms critics used to describe the agreement. Most of the critics admitted that they had not read the agreement before weighing in. All of the dissenters changed the subject when a reporter asked for their alternative solution.

The best solution any of them could come up with was, “tougher sanctions.” Never mind that while the sanctions in place were having a devastating effect on the Iranian economy they were having zero effect on the regime’s progress toward producing an atomic weapon. In fact since George W. Bush imposed economic sanctions on the “Evil Empire” in 2003, Iran has increased its nuclear material producing centrifuges from 200 to over 19,000. Sanctions brought Iran to the bargaining table but they did nothing to stall Iran’s march to the bomb.

The funny thing is that while the ruling class inside the beltway continued to voice their 20 month opposition to a deal with Iran the rest of the country was expressing an entirely different message.

Check any poll and you will find that 59%-64% of Americans outside the Washington beltway favor reaching a peaceful agreement with Iran. To those who question the political bias of these polls, consider the great state of Oklahoma. Oklahoma is politically as red as red can be yet 70% of Oklahomans polled favor reaching a deal with Iran.

As usual the politicians inside the beltway have yet to catch up with the rest of the country.

So why do we have this “disconnect?” Why do we hear such dissent, particularly from the right, to a peaceful solution that bends to the wishes of a majority of the people? There are several reasons.

Gerrymandered districts breed partisan gridlock. Intransigence in Washington is rewarded with job security back home.

Then there is the “Obama” factor. There are those who will do whatever it takes to deny this particular president a victory. The reasons go beyond principled partisan politics. They are based on race and hate and they have no business in our political discourse.

But I believe that the primary reason for the “disconnect” between those inside the beltway and the rest of the country is an unrealistic view on the part of the former as to America’s place in the world order. They see us as the world’s only remaining superpower and somehow equate our military might to our “exceptionalism.” Yes we are a superpower. But in spite of our extraordinary economic success and unsurpassed military might we are not omnipotent. The people that fought the wars in Vietnam and Iraq have learned that lesson. The politicians who sent them there have not.

And so while elected leaders bluster about “American leadership” and “forming the tip of the spear” when it comes to facing our enemies; the American people call for peaceful diplomacy.

Negotiating peace with a sworn enemy is no easy task. There is little trust on either side of the table. There are a million reasons why this deal could blow apart. But Nixon found a way with China as did Reagan with the Soviet Union. The world is a better place for it.

President Obama blocked out the beltway noise. He understood that the country wanted a peaceful solution to a very difficult and dangerous problem. Fortunately for us he listened.

If HE is right, the world will be a better place for it.