Obama Steps Up On Immigration

On Friday the President signed an executive order which will stop the deportation of young illegal immigrants who meet certain criteria outlined in the failed “Dream Act.”  The action is intended to open a path to citizenship for those individuals who, as children were brought into this country illegally by their parents. 

Republicans criticized the President’s order as a political stunt designed to pander to the immigrant communities during an election year.  “He could have done this anytime during the past three and a half years.  Why now?  The answer seems pretty evident.”

Mitt Romney, appearing on CBS’s “Face the Nation, said the President was playing politics and questioned why the President was ordering this “temporary” action now instead of finding a permanent solution when Democrats controlled the White House and both houses of Congress.  Romney was asked several times by host Bob Schieffer if he would repeal the President’s order if elected.  Romney refused to be pinned down.

Was the President playing politics in issuing this executive order?  Absolutely!  The White House saw an opportunity to cement their relationship with the immigrant communities and they took it.  It is also true that the President could have taken this action at any time during the past three and a half years.  However what is not true is the assertion that the President has not made any effort to find a permanent solution to the immigration problem.

The “Dream Act” was introduced by Democrats Dick Durbin and Orin Hatch on August 1, 2001.  Since that time it has been repeatedly re-introduced by Democrats only to see it blocked by Republicans.  As recently as December 8, 2010 the House of Representatives passed the Dream Act only to have Republicans block it in the Senate.

Romney’s slippery response to Schieffer’s questioning is typical Romney.  When Romney was trying to win the Republican nomination he had no trouble pandering to the far right.  His solution to the illegal immigration problem was simple:  round them up and send them home.  He coupled this simplistic approach with a call for stronger boarders and “self-deportation”?  But now that the nomination is secure he has tempered his rhetoric so as not to alienate immigrants.  Romney’s stance on immigration…like many other core issues…is hard to pin down.

The President boxed Romney into a corner on this one.  He used his executive power to overcome an obstructionist Congress and he made Romney look bad in the process.  Such are the ways of polictics.

In the end, one million young people who were brought here illegally through no fault of their own, now have an opportunity to become productive American citizens.  That’s a good thing. 

                

  

Obama Needs To Change Course

President Obama and Mitt Romney will both be speaking in the key swing state of Ohio today.  Both candidates will address the country’s economic problems.  Neither candidate is expected to offer specifics as to how to fix those problems going forward.

That’s a mistake.

Recent polls show that the country does not believe that either candidate has presented a clearly defined path for the future.  They see both candidates parroting the same old bi-partisan rhetoric while shying away from the tough decisions that everyone knows have to be made.

The President believes that the way to win re-election is by attacking the Republican Party and criticizing Mitt Romney’s record.  He blames the Republicans for the problems he inherited and the intransigence he has faced in trying to get things done.  He likes to criticize Romney’s record as governor and question Romney’s business success as a qualifier for the presidency.  His overall message is that things are getting better and we cannot afford to return to the same Republican policies that got us in this mess in the first place.  Naturally, he steers clear of the fact that as the leader of the country he has been unable to find a way to lead us out of this morass.   

Mitt Romney’s approach is a little more subtle but just as negative.  The plan is to lie in the weeds, avoid mistakes and allow the failing economy to do most of his talking.  His public appearances have been scaled back.  But when he does take to the stump it is to emphasize the weak economy under Obama’s leadership.  He steers clear of offering any specifics as to how he would do things any better given the circumstances.  His only solution thus far is to get out of the way and let people do what they want.

The problem for both of these gentlemen is that neither one of them has offered an economic message that resonates with the voters.  Recent polls asked voters if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of the candidate’s economic message.  The result was a virtual tie with both candidates scoring a favorable rating in the mid-30s% and an unfavorable rating in the mid-50s%.  Not good.

The President’s problem is that voters don’t care about what happened three years ago or three decades ago.  They don’t believe that things are getting better because it doesn’t FEEL like things are getting better.  Most Americans are still struggling and they want to know specifically what the President, our leader,  is going to do about it.

As for Romney, voters don’t begrudge him his wealth but they wonder if his position allows him to understand their plight.  They know that Obama inherited a mess and they know it is easy to criticize the results of Obama’s efforts.  But they want to see Romney’s specific plan.  And they are not convinced that reducing taxes for the rich, repealing Obamacare and getting the hell out of the way will somehow make their lives any better.

Over the next five months Romney will probably follow the same course.  He’ll sit back and let the weak economy drown the President while his friends in congress block any possibility of giving the Obama a legislative win.  He'll stear clear of specifics and let sound bites and grainy photos of shuttered businesses carry his message.  

If the President continues to follow his current path he is destined to fail.  He needs to stop whining and find a higher plateau.  He needs to lead.  As we have said before; his path to victory lies in presenting a big, bold game changing plan to the American people.  A balanced approach that includes massive stimulus over the next 12-24 months along with a comprehensive long term deficit reduction plan that embraces entitlement reform.  Congress doesn’t need to pass it.  The President just needs to put it on the table and let the voters decide.

Mitt Romney may be able to stay the course and still win the election.  If the President continues along his negative path…he will lose.       

          

Wall Street Drinking The GOP Kool-Aid

We noted earlier how Wall Street has decided to shift its financial support from the President to Mitt Romney.  Based on the recently released Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances you have to wonder why.

According to this Federal Reserve Survey the bulk of the drop in household financial income occurred in 2008.  Household income has increased every year Obama has been in office.  Corporate profits are at record levels, higher than they were before the recession.  Mutual funds have increased 65% since Obama took office, reaching their highest levels on record.  Deposits are up 7%, and the DOW industrial Average is up 56% since January 20, 2009…the day Obama was inaugurated.  Unemployment has dropped from 10.1% to 8.2% and the country has seen 27 straight months of job growth.  While we still have a long way to go; the economy IS recovering albeit slowly.

Piqued by the President’s criticism of their exorbitant compensation packages and golden parachutes in the middle an economic meltdown they have turned away from the President and embraced a candidate that “understands how business works.”  From where we sit they have bought into a lie.  They act as if understanding business is somehow like brain surgery or landing a man on the moon.  In fact it is not all that complicated.   But we digress…

Bombarded by millions of dollars of ads spewing falsehoods about the country’s economic plight, Wall Street moguls have embraced a guy who thinks you run the White House like you run a corporate board room.  They believe that the country is in peril solely because the President is “not one of them” and “has no idea how business works.”  Anyone who looks at these numbers can see that this President does in fact have a grasp on the business end of the job and has implemented policies that are in point of fact, working.  When Republicans run their ads and talking points to the contrary; they are simply lying for political gain.

Wall Street has taken a big gulp of Republican $$$ Kool-Aid.  Through their profit induced haze they hear Romney speaking the same robotic profit first language they do.  They follow the same path as Romney; using other people’s money to make risky bets for leverage and profit.  Romney looks presidential.  Nice hair.  Good teeth.  Right pedigree…belongs to the right clubs…says all the right “corporate” things.

 They are smitten and so they have placed their bet on the Republican horse.  But they have misinterpreted the information on the racing form.  His record at Bain does not qualify him to run in this race.  His prelim in Massachusetts was in fact a failure.  Yet, so overcome are they by the prospects of this slick new thoroughbred that they have forgotten how well they have done riding their old favorite to the winners circle.

No problem.  It’s really only a game for them.  Wall Street is used to making risky bets.  They always come out a winner no matter who wins the race.        

This & That...

Wall Street has abandoned Obama.  Stung by the president’s criticism of the business community and the top 1% earners, Wall Street has responded by turning off the flow of money to the Obama Campaign in favor of Mitt Romney.  Thus far Wall Street has donated $40 million to the Romney Campaign while forking over only $5 million to Obama.  It’s still early but the trend is telling.

Independent and moderate voters have caught on to the Republican’s strategy of “obstructionism.”  A new Daily Kos/SEIU opinion poll shows that 51% of self described independents and 61% of moderates believe that Republicans are intentionally blocking efforts to jump start the economy to ensure that Obama is not re-elected.

Echoing the above poll results, former Republican Governor Florida Jeb Bush has weighed in on his party’s seeming unwillingness to compromise. He said both his father, George H. W. Bush and Ronald Reagan, believed in compromise and would have had a hard time fitting in with the current Republican Party.

Syria has turned into a civil war.  Sec. of State Clinton has publically called out Moscow for providing military helicopters which the Syrian government has used to target insurgents as well as innocent women and children.  The Soviets have denied the accusation.  China and Russia have both refused to authorize any UN intervention.  War hawks in congress are questioning the president’s reluctance to intervene unilaterally.  The American people have no stomach for another ground war and it is unlikely that we will see any US involvement in the middle of an election season.  Besides, there is no oil in Syria.  If there were we’d be looking at a whole lot more US involvement.

JPMorgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon will appear before congress today where he is expected to apologize for a $3 billion dollar trading loss.  The loss has been attributed to and investment (gambling) strategy that stretched the definition of “hedging” to its limits.  We don’t understand why Mr. Dimon needs to apologize for anything.  According to Republicans this is just another example of the free enterprise system at work…right?  Investments are made…risks are taken…some are winners…some are losers.  Republicans did everything in their power to quash efforts by the government to regulate banks in order to prevent “risky” investment strategies such as this from being implemented. So given their refusal to implement protections against this type of activity we don’t understand the entire hubbub.  “C’est la vie.”            

A Real Time Look At Romney's Economic Policy

“He (President Obama) wants another stimulus; he wants to hire more government workers.  He says we need more firemen, more policemen, more teachers.  Did he not get the message of Wisconsin?  The American people did.  It’s time for us to cut back on government and help the American people.

                                                                                                              Mitt Romney 06/08/2102

 Mitt Romney likes to talk about how his experience in the business community gives him an understanding of how the economy works and how to create jobs. He believes that it is his business experience that qualifies him for the presidency.  This quotation gives us the first real time example of how he would apply that business experience to an actual presidential problem.

The comment came in response to the President’s calling on congress to pass his jobs bill; a bill which would provide state and local governments with funding to rehire the policemen, firemen, teachers and other public safety workers that they were forced to fire during the recession due to a lack of federal funds.  Here we see Romney using his Bain experience to advocate downsizing and the cutting of programs and expenses even if it means the firing of 700,000 government employees.  He even seems to dismiss the value of these employees as if they are somehow NOT American: “It’s time for us to cut back on government and help the American people.”  Are these fired public employees not “American people.” 

Naturally a number of Romney surrogates jumped in to support the Governor’s position.  Most notable was a comment from the national voice of the Republican Party, Rush Limbaugh.  “I have nothing against teachers, firefighters and policemen…but they are not part of the private sector.  They contribute nothing to the economy.  The idea police, teachers and firefighters contribute to economic growth is ignorance 101.”  Apparently, according to Limbaugh, these public employees do not purchase well,…anything.  Their food, clothing, electronics, automobiles, homes etc. all just magically appear in their households without their having to spend a dime.  How nice for them!

This is the problem with Mitt Romney and the Republican Party’s view of our economy.  It is the Bain Capital view that only the investors/job creators matter.  Everyone else can be cast aside in order to make a profit…or in this specific case a government surplus.

According to the Federal Reserve the median US family in 2010 had no more net worth than it did in the early 1990’s.  Median US families lost 39% of their net worth over the past decade.  We don’t understand how Romney’s plan to slash “big government programs” reverses that trend.  Because when you cut government programs you lay off the workers who administer those programs.  Those workers no longer have an income to buy goods and services.  Unemployment rises while demand for goods and services declines.  If there is no demand then there is no incentive for the “job creators” to invest and hire.   

How does any of that help the economy or the American people?

     

"Bad Day At Black Rock"

The past few weeks have been anything but positive for the Obama Campaign.  Every news cycle brought something that put the campaign on the defensive: Biden outing the President on gay marriage, a rise in the unemployment numbers, weak job growth, national security leaks, massacres in Syria, the financial crisis in Europe, the beat down in Wisconsin, Bill Clinton’s ruminations and the President’s own “the private sector is doing fine” gaffe.  It seemed that anything that could go wrong did.    

As the polls reported an ever tightening race between the two candidates, pundits questioned the wisdom of the Obama Campaign’s strategy to go negative on Romney’s past as opposed to offering a positive plan for the future. When pressed, senior Obama aids made it clear that they would stay the course:  “We know what resonates with the American people better than you.” touted one aid.

Maybe they do. Or maybe it’s the arrogance of fools.  One thing is certain…right now it ain’t workin’.

This promises to be the most negative campaign in our history.  The Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling assures that it will also be the most expensive.  $3.2 billion will be spent on campaign ads this year; most of them of the negative variety.  In 2008 there were 10,000+ campaign ads run in the presidential election; over 80% of them negative attack ads.  Already this year there have been over 120,000+ campaign ads run; over 88% of them negative attack ads. 

The funding of these ads and the grassroots ground game that backs them up will lean heavily toward the Republican side of the ledger.  For the first time in our history a sitting president will be outspent by his opponent.  The Romney Campaign raised $77 million in the month of May; compared to $60 million for Obama.  The Koch Brothers have said that they will spend $400 million to defeat Obama.  Put into perspective, the McCain Campaign spent a total of $300 million in 2008. The Obama Campaign knew that they would be outspent by the well healed conservative Super Pacs.  They just didn’t think the onslaught would come this quickly.  And it’s only May. 

There is no doubt that the President’s re-election prospects hinge on events over which he has little or no control.  There is very little that the President can do about the US economy and nothing he can do about economic conditions in Europe.  Add a terrorist attack on US soil to a weak economy and you have all the makings for a change in the White House.  He may not be able to single handedly fix the economy.  And even as the most powerful person in the world, he cannot bring about world peace with the snap of his fingers.  But there is one thing he can do…he can change the narrative.

The tsunami of negativity that is going to wash over the electorate in the next five months cannot be understated.  The only way that the President’s voice will be heard above the negative clamor will be if he embraces a positive message of hope delivered with a clear path for the future.  The only way to turn around the negativity of these past few weeks is to outline what his past decisions have produced for the country and to explain specifically how he has a plan to return the country to prosperity.

We’ve written about this before; and it deserves repeating.  Demonizing Romney won’t work.  That speech will just get lost in all the other negative white noise funded by the pro-Romney Super Pacs.  Positive and constructive is the way to go…

…and keep a tight rein on Biden and Clinton.

        

    

House Reps. Make Sure There Is Plenty Of Beer In The Fridge.

POLITICO reports that the GOP led House of Representatives, who have been trying to cut domestic spending and social programs for the poor and elderly, just voted to protect their own office expense accounts from budget cuts.  The $3.3 billion measure to fund congressional operations was passed by a bi-partisan vote of 307-102.

House members, having successfully passed the funding measure ensuring that they will not find themselves wanting, immediately left Washington for a weeklong vacation.

You can’t make this stuff up.