Obama Goes On The Offensive

The President traveled to Ohio to announce his recess appointment of Richard Cordray as the first director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.  Cordray’s appointment had received 53 approval votes in the Senate but not the 60 needed to avoid a Republican filibuster.

 The Presidents appointment angered Republicans who had successfully blocked White House efforts to appoint a director since the CFPB was formed as part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.  The bill was passed into law in July of 2010; but the CFPB has remained dormant because much of its enforcement capability lies in the authority granted the director. 

Naturally the banking industry is less than enamored with any sort of regulation, and they have tasked their lackeys in the Republican Party to block the CFPB.  Message heard loud and clear.  Fearing that the President would use his authority to make a recess appointment if the Senate was not in session for three consecutive days; Senate Republicans went  so far as to implement a little known rule to keep the Senate technically in “pro-forma” session…even when no business was actually being conducted.

Upon learning of Cordray’s appointment, Republicans took to the microphones in waves to denounce the President’s decision.  Mitt Romney called the appointment “more Chicago style politics.”  Speaker Boehner called it "an unprecedented power grab."  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said: “President Obama, in an unprecedented move, has arrogantly circumvented the American people by recess appointing Richard Cordray a director of the new CFPB.”  Some Republicans even questioned the President’s constitutional authority to make recess appointments while others threatened legal action.

Let’s set the record straight.  The President’s recess appointment is hardly unprecedented.  Past Presidents have routinely made recess appointments.  President Obama has made 28 recess appointments since taking office; an average of less than 10 appointments per year.  To put that into perspective we checked the record of some of Obama’s predecessors and found that George W. Bush made 171 recess appointments during his two terms; an average of 21.3 per year.  President Clinton made 139 appointments (17.4/year); and George H. W. Bush 73 appointments (18.3/year). 

But the President who took the biggest advantage of his authority to make recess appointments is one of the most revered by Republicans…Ronald Reagan.  Reagan made a whopping 243 recess appointments during his two terms; and average of 30.75/year. 

This appointment was a brilliant, though late in coming, political move by the President.  He traveled to Ohio, an important swing state, to appoint a wildly popular favorite son to head a critical agency formed to protect consumers against the predatory practices that ruined the economy.  And should the Republicans be foolish enough too legally question the constitutionality of the appointment…the White House could only be so lucky.  Imagine the firestorm in the press as the headlines scream: REPUBLICANS SUE TO BLOCK FORMATION OF CONSUMER PROTECTION AGENCY.

The Republicans tried once again to deprive the President of a victory.  They placed ideology and politics ahead of what was good for the country.  It took extra innings…but the President got the “W”. 

        

             

ROMNEY WINS!...and loses.

Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucuses edging a surging Rick Santorum by 8 votes.  Considering that early on in the campaign Romney supporters held out little hope of a positive result in Iowa; last night’s win is a major victory.  But that victory comes shrouded with some very real concerns.

As a moderate candidate Romney did not appeal to the more conservative culture in Iowa.  So the campaign downplayed the contest and maintained a low key attitude about their chances.  Better to keep expectations low and spin any nominal success positively than go all in and be embarrassed by defeat.  But while the Romney campaign was tamping down expectations they were secretly building an infrastructure in case things turned their way.

Suddenly Romney began to gain ground as Iowa voters became more and more convinced that he was the only candidate running who could win a general election against the President.  The Romney people made the calculation that a win in Iowa followed by a guaranteed victory in New Hampshire might just clinch the nomination early.  So the Romney campaign went all in, and along with their supportive Super Pacs poured millions into the state.  The result was a victory with 25% of the vote.

And therein lays the problem. 

Mitt Romney defeated Rick Santorum by 8 votes.  They both garnered 25% of the votes cast.  Romney spent millions; saturating the state with campaign ads, robo calls and coffee cloches.  Santorum, with little more than the clothes on his back, did it the old fashion way.  He knocked on doors, shook hands and kissed babies.  His first meet and greet was attended by one voter.  In the end he fought Romney to a statistical tie.

Mitt Romney has been campaigning for President for the past 5 years.  He has spent tens of millions of dollars in search of this goal.  And yet he is in the exact same place he was 5 years ago; unable to pull in more than 25% of the vote while the other 75% keep searching for someone who is NOT Romney.  For all his effort Romney has still not connected with the vast majority of Republican voters.

Prior to last night’s vote the conventional wisdom was that if Romney did well in Iowa and won New Hampshire the party would be over before it started.  Not anymore.  Rick Santorum’s surge changed all that.  Ron Paul, who pulled in 21% of the Iowa vote isn't  going anywhere either.  And an angry Newt Gingrich has promised to spend his every waking moment going after Romney.

Santorum has the wind at his back; and while he has no chance in New Hampshire his evangelical message will resonate well in the next competitive contest; South Carolina.  Santorum would be well served to bypass New Hampshire, conserve his resources, raise more money and make a huge push in South Carolina.

Meanwhile Romney is left to sit and wonder what he needs to do to connect with voters and break through that 25% ceiling.  After Five years of campaigning and millions of dollars spent he has yet to make his case. 

Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucuses last night; but his victory was a hollow one.        

      

Tonight's Loser...The American People

As we write this the Iowa Caucuses are just getting underway.  And while the winner will not be known for a few more hours there is already a clear loser in this election process…the American people.

Over the past few weeks we have watched the seedy side of politics reach and all time low.  Thanks to the Supreme Court Citizen United decision, Romney supporters have been able to influence this election in a way never before possible. 

Citizen United is the case wherein the Supreme Court ruled that major corporations and wealthy individuals could anonymously donate unlimited sums of money to the candidate of their choice.  Super Pacs, who are separate and autonomous from the candidate they support, are able to use this ruling to collect vast sums of money from wealthy donors which they use to run an avalanche of attack ads against their opponents.  Because the candidate and his campaign are prohibited by law from communicating with or co-ordinating the activities of these Super Pacs, the candidate is able to sit above the fray untouched by the venom and lies prevalent in these ads.  And nobody has taken advantage of this ruling better than Mitt Romney.

Three weeks ago Newt Gingrich had soared to the lead in the polls.  Gingrich held 30% of the vote while Romney continued to be locked in at 25%.  That same week Restore Our Future, a Super Pac supportive of Romney but separate from the Romney campaign, began to run what would eventually be over 1200 attack ads against Gingrich.  Restore Our Future spent over 2.8 million dollars viciously attacking Gingrich, the one opponent Romney feared.  Three short weeks later, as the doors opend for the Iowa Caucuses, Gingrich’s support has plummeted to 15%; essentially knocking him out of contention in Iowa.

The Citizens United decision has provided an opportunity for the very wealthy to anonymously buy an election.  Citizens United has effectively eliminated or at the very least unfairly limited the chances of a middle class citizen ever reaching elected office.  Elections are no longer about issues and stump speeches and leadership.  Elections are about money…more now than ever before.  The long term effects of this ruling are frightening.

Sadly, this is not what the founding fathers envisioned.  Those of us who raised these concerns when the ruling was issued can take little solace in saying “I told you so.”

It is however ironic that Newt Gingrich, who was once a vocal supporter of the Citizens United decision, now finds himself its first victim.        

             

Let The Voting Begin

After enduring eight months of speeches, 13 debates, thousands of meet and greet events, and millions of dollars of campaign ads the good people of Iowa will flock to 1,744 caucus locations and cast their vote for the Republican nominee for President of the United States.  As the witching hour approaches there are several things which could affect a still very fluid situation.

Enthusiasm - To call the crowds at the numerous candidate events sparse would be kind.  Routinely Iowans attending these events are vastly outnumbered by the press.  Frightened Iowans have been spotted cowering in the corner besieged by journalists from all over the globe.  At times it appears that the Swedes are more interested in these candidates than the locals.  Mitt Romney has consistently maintained his “25% of the vote” status for months with the remaining 75% left to be carved among the other candidates.  Can Romney finally break through that 25% ceiling?  If he can does that mean voters are finally accepting him as the only candidate who can defeat the President.

Romney – Early on the Romney camp did not believe they would do well in Iowa clearly, ceding the win to Ron Paul.  But as the months wore on Romney gained his footing in the state and slowly and quietly began to build an infrastructure in case things started turning in his favor.  Sensing that he might have a chance to win Iowa and use that victory to secure the nomination quickly, pro Romney super pacs ramped up their efforts, pouring millions of dollars into attack ads against the one opponent who they feared could derail their run to the nomination: Newt Gingrich.  You cannot watch a TV show in Iowa without being subjected to a negative ad besmirching the character and capabilities of Newt Gingrich.  These ads seem to be working as Gingrich’s numbers have plummeted while Romney maintains his solid 25%.  Will Romney’s strategy give him a surprising win or will all the negativity back fire in his face?  One thing is certain…anyone winning but Newt is good for the Romney campaign.

Santorum – Rick Santorum is the only candidate to travel to all 99 counties in Iowa.  He has knocked on tens of thousands of doors, attended coffee cloches in living rooms and sat around hundreds of kitchen tables.  Hampered by his paltry war chest Santorum has done it the old fashion way…and it is working.  The Santorum campaign has experienced a huge surge over the past week and now ranks second behind Romney with 16% of the vote.  It is Santorum who has benefited most from Newt’s plummeting poll numbers.  Can Santorum win this thing and use it as a springboard to stay in the race?  It seems more than possible.

Gingrich – The Gingrich campaign has been devastated by tsunami of attack ads purchased by the Romney super pacs.  Gingrich, who doesn’t have the funds to fight back, can do little more than challenge Romney to a one on one debate and encourage Iowans to speak out against negative tone of Romney’s ads.  Gingrich has done his best to control his temper over the attacks.  He has vowed to remain positive and focus his comments on the issues and the President’s record.  Up until yesterday he was doing pretty well at keeping that promise.  No more!  Yesterday a seething Gingrich announced that beginning Wednesday his campaign would spend all the money they raised over the last quarter (9 mil.) to do something none of the other candidates have done thus far…attack Romney.  Gingrich attends to lay bear Romney’s record and expose Romney for the fraud he believes Romney to be.  Asked yesterday by a CBS commentator Norah O' Donnell if he thought Romney was a liar Gingrich responded simply, forcefully and effectively…”yes”.  Gingrich plans to go all out at Romney when they appear together next Sunday on Meet the Press.  Gingrich is pissed…and one place Romney does not want to be is sharing a live stage with a pissed Newt Gingrich.

So who will win?  The prognosticators say Romney is the favorite with Santorum closing at the finish.    Too close to call.

It's time to vote.  At the end of the evening we will finally have the only polling result that really matters.            

Thank You! Happy New Year!

It is hard to fathom that a year has gone by since we started expressing our disjointed opinions on this page.  On January 4, 2011 we wrote the first article and upon reflection wondered if we would ever write another.  On that day we doubted that anyone would even see the post much less care about what we had to say.  But thanks to you we found our voice; and two hundred and seventy five diatribes later we are still going strong.  Never in our wildest dreams did we imagine that so many of you would be interested in what we had to say.  We thank you for your interest and your support.  Your words of encouragement are greatly appreciated; and whatever success we may have achieved is because of you.

Thank you! 

Happy New Year! 

Why Iowa Matters

If you are like us and have nothing better to do with your lives than watch the wall to wall media coverage of the Republican primary process; then you are probably scratching your head about all the to do surrounding the upcoming Iowa Caucuses.  One minute the pundits are frothing about the importance of Iowa in picking the Republican nominee.  The next minute they are laughing about Iowa’s irrelevance in the process.  So what gives?  Is Iowa a big deal or not?

Historically the Iowa Caucuses have had very little impact on picking the eventual Republican nominee.  In fact their record stinks.  In recent history Iowans have picked the eventual nominee only twice:  Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000.  Only Bush made it to the White House.  Mike Huckabee in 2008, Bob Dole in 1988 and George H. W. Bush in 1980 all won in Iowa but failed to get the nomination. 

Iowans have had better success on the Democratic side…but not much.  Their selection of Edmund Muskie, Tom Harkin, Pat Robertson and Pat Buchanan, none of whom won the nomination, overshadows their limited success.  Perhaps most notable was 1976 when Iowans handed a victory to “uncommitted”.  Jimmie Carter came in a distant second. 

As the saying goes: “As Iowa goes…so goes Iowa.”

Consequently Iowa’s weak track record and fly over status garner little respect from the national media.  The fact that Ron Paul, who is given little chance to win the nomination and zero chance of winning the Presidency, currently leads in Iowa only furthers the media’s generally dismissive attitude.

But this year is different.  Pundits are paying very close attention to Iowa; and it’s not because Iowa is the first time people actually get to vote.  Iowans can make a difference in deciding who wins the nomination.  Here’s how.

Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are currently in a statistical tie for the lead with Santorum surging 6 percentage points behind.  If Iowans give Romney the win the thinking is that Romney adds this win to his assured victory in New Hampshire and the nomination is his before the primary season has barely started…game, set match.  The other primaries will fall in line. 

But if Iowans give Paul the win, and they will be the only state to do so, they will give his campaign momentum.  Paul will lose in the remaining primaries but he will still be in the race.  Emboldened by his Iowa victory and subsequent modest showing he will elect to run for President as a third party candidate.  This will be a disaster for Republicans.  Paul’s third party candidacy will steal conservative votes from Romney and hand the Presidency to Obama.  So anything that gives credence to Paul’s campaign ultimately hurts the Republican Party.  And it all starts with Iowa.           

We have been to Iowa.  We even spent some time with Iowans over the Christmas holiday.  As a general rule they are hard working fiscally conservative folks who believe in limited government.  They are pro life and pro gun.  They believe that marriage should be between a man and a woman and they are not fond of the idea of gays serving openly in the military.  They are more likely to be found marching with the Tea Party crowd than the Occupy Wall Street bunch.  They are generally evangelical Christians in whose lives God and religion play an important part.  Ron Paul and Rick Santorum speak to them…Barak Obama does not.

 Iowans have an important choice to make.  Do they make a "values" statement and throw their support behind Ron Paul or even Rick Santorum, men who cannot possibly win the nomination or a general election against Obama?  Or do they get in line behind traditional Republicans with a unity vote for Romney?

Lost in all the noise is the one candidate who we believe would really give the President a run for his money: Jon Huntsman.  Sadly for Republicans, Huntsman is not on anyone’s radar in Iowa.    

If You Think 2011 Was Bad...

As this year draws to a close those of us who follow politics will look back upon 2011 as one of the most tumultuous in our history.  It seemed like every day a new topic surfaced that threatened to tear apart the very fabric of the country.  Here is a brief snapshot of some the debates that served to inflame our rhetoric and widen our political divide: implementation of “Obamacare”, the individual mandate, abortion rights, Planned Parenthood, collective bargaining rights for public employees, Tea Party, Occupy Wall street, immigration reform, education reform, voting rights, debt ceiling debate, tax reform, spending cuts, tax the rich, Simpson-Bowles, privatization of social security, the Paul Ryan Plan, the Gang of Six, Supercommittee, the Grand Bargain, S&P credit rating downgrade,  massive unemployment,  job creation, payroll tax cuts, Bush tax cuts, Republican primary debates, Arab Spring, Libya, invade Pakistan, invade Syria, invade Iran, troop surge in Afghanistan, troop drawdown in Afghanistan and  combat forces leaving Iraq.  Even the successful elimination of the country’s #1 enemy, Osama bin Laden was subject to criticism and debate.

We are not suggesting that a substantive debate isn’t healthy and that these important items should not receive scrutiny.  But what have we accomplished?  As you gaze upon this list you will note that with few exceptions these important facets of our life are still unresolved.  For all the analysis and press we are still in much the same place that we were at the beginning of the year.  We are still at war.  Our economy is a mess.  Unemployment and poverty continue at alarming numbers and our debt and deficit continue to skyrocket with no end in sight.

And if you think 2011 was fraught with political paralysis wait until you see what is in store for 2012.

 On December 30 the President will request another $1.2 trillion in borrowing authority.  That will increase the debt limit to $16.4 trillion.  There is an automatic $1.2 trillion in cuts that are set to begin in January of 2013.  But Republicans want to reopen the discussion about those numbers because they include steep cuts to the military budget.  The payroll tax cuts that were just extended for two months will have to be extended again come March. 

And all of this will take place in the middle of a hotly contested election season.  Not only will we have the usual acrimony that occurs with every Presidential election but we will be witness to a serious battle to control both the House and the Senate.  The acrimony within the much divided House Republican caucus will hamper Republican efforts to maintain control.  And with Nebraska Democratic Senator Ben Nelson’s retirement announcement the Democrats now have to defend 23 Senate seats.  The weak economy and high unemployment will weigh down the President’s chances for a second term and weaken the strength of his coat tails.  In other words everything is up for grabs.  And one thing is certain…very little gets accomplished in Washington during an election season.

So if you think 2011 was bad…2011 will be little more than a warm up band for 2012.

And while all this paralysis by analysis is going on in Washington…14 million people are out of work, 52 million are without health care and 146 million are living in poverty.